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  • tail_risk tail_risk Jan 21, 2013 6:18 PM Flag

    Chance of a Chipotle-style stock collapse after earnings--62.543%

    What chance to you give an after-hours decline followed by an immediate march back up the following day. That's been the pattern recently.
    I feel very confident that they'll disappoint on eps. Magnitude of the decline will depend on how they do on rev. If they miss rev, watch out below.

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    • Would love to know why you feel confident of a miss on EPS. I am assuming a beat on EPS. That was certainly what happened last year and the expectations have been guided down so low. As I posted earlier, I am guessing the stock price movement you mentioned (AH down, but right back up next day). This is a challenging short but I think there will be sub-250 opportunity if you are willing to wait as long as 3 months.

      • 2 Replies to stkguy
      • Where should i start???
        1) have you seen their esp result from the past year??? q4 2011 eps = 0.38, q1 2012 eps = 0.28, q2 eps = 0.01, and q3 2012 eps = -.6 (a loss of $0.60 per share)... do you notice a trend???
        2) it has widely been reported that holiday sales have disappointed. Comscore reported you growth of 14%... amzn is suppose to do 27%
        3) sales tax has was collected in ca, pa an tx (very large markets) and there are reports that sales have lagged other states.
        4) the average rev per unit sold is trending down, while shipping costs are flat to up. this pressures margins.
        5) they cut prices on aws (their cloud services) by 25%.
        I don't see how they hit an eps of 0.27.
        Even if they do, they will have negative earnings for the year!!!

      • oh yeah... forgot an important one. old jb said he doesn't worry about earnings in a recent hbs article. do you think we would say that if amzn had a good quarter???

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