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  • vineyarp vineyarp Jan 26, 2013 6:42 AM Flag

    AMZN will post lose and revenue less then 22B

    I hope you're right. I'm a P/E investor, and the news doesn't support this valuation.

    This sort of run up to earnings has happened several times before (last 4 years) and is almost always followed by a sharp decline.

    My guess - there are a lot of bets being placed that this will fall by a third after Tuesday night.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • that merely will provide the fuel for more upside and perplex even more shorts. See the Seeking Alpha article previewing AMZN earnings below and read the comments on the "cartel" to it. You might learn somethiing beyond being a "PE" investor. Sounds like you are more a "PE:" short trader.

      • 1 Reply to nasdaq_6000_baby
      • this is why I say your fellow short can be your enemy and part of the danger of AMZN shorting: And why people like Sybil who say they are short on every new high are probably full of it. They can easlity get blown out if this truly exists. AMZN is "top shelf" treated by WS , that we know. Timing a correction in it is very hard and why would want to promote shorting it like ex-goldbug and Sybil do: maybe be/c they like the "cartel" you never know. It's something to think about for sure.

        "I have said this before, but it bears stating again. AMZN is a cartel controlled stock. The cartel is not just riding the wave of investor euphoria, ala 1999-2000. AMZN is well suited for this type of investor mania, as we all know.

        AMZN is a company that has negative operating margins and no profits, but is simultaneously in 7-8 different business lines. Each of these business can be priced to infinity, so that the sum of these parts can add up to 135 billion of enterprise value. There is no E in AMZN, and thus Wall Street can use their useless fluff pieces as justification for price targets.

        But AMZN is more than just a typical Wall Street pump job. It is a controlled cartel, most likely by Fidelity and GS, with several other trading firms and large holders thrown in. This enables the cartel to literally control the price, through sometimes fraudulent and illegal trades.

        If you watch the way AMZN trades, it moves on little to no volume, most often in pre-market and in the first 30 minutes and last 15 minutes of trading. AMZN moves as if the stakeholders have figured out a way to trade with each other, shifting the price higher during low market floats, and then cancel some percentage of the trades at the end of the day. This enables the cartel to not only control most of the float, but have near limitless buying power during the most manipulated trading periods.

        Since there is no value to ultimately judge the stock, and most of the float is controlled, getting the stock to the high level is the ultimate goal. With AMZN, there is no counterbalancing value selling that happens in every other stock when buying overshoots the mark. Overshooting the mark is the nature of the game for the cartel.

        Of course this is illegal, but since nobody at the SEC or self regulating exchanges is looking for evidence of cancelled trades, the cartel can commit their crime with impunity. There is zero chance of prosecution.

        Ironically, the short interest, which in AMZN is the only true value seeking capital, consistently provides fuel for the cartel. It is their new money that constantly enters the pool, rather than new longs. The short money is the target. A 1% increase in short interest is what the cartel goes after. Shorts that hold for any length of time inevitably are forced to cover, thereby moving money from their bank accounts to the cartel.

        The entire process works because the incentive system for Fidelity is perverted. Dec 31 asset size is what matters for mutual fund managers. Larger assets, larger bonus. By marking up AMZN between themselves, they are effectively paying themselves out of their mutual fund holders pockets. When the game of musical chairs stops, their bonuses have long since been distributed.

        The question still remains as to what will cause the end of this cycle. I am puzzled.

        In the meantime, the earnings catalyst is the next big event for AMZN. And technically stocks seem to want to go higher. The AMZN AAPL dispersion is striking, even for the always bizarre AMZN chart.

        AMZN will almost certainly gap off its earnings. Higher or lower is the question, and I don't have the answer. Have enough new shorts entered the pool on this up cycle in order to create another blowoff gap to the upside, or will AMZN perform its usual dance of miss, gap lower, and then recover?

        That is main question for AMZN stock, and the next big money making (or losing) opportunity. 25 Jan, 07:17 PM"

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