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  • powerchump powerchump Jan 26, 2013 10:32 PM Flag

    Probability and magnitude of Q4 loss

    I did some back of the envelope math on Q4. If Q3 to Q4 operating expenses rise on roughly the same percentage basis as 2011, then Amazon must post at least $23B in revenue to break even. With all the various and credible reasons mentioned on the board for a revenue miss, it seems reasonably probable that Q4 is at the bottom of the range or worse. Losing a couple hundred million in Q4 will not be positive for the share price.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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