Everyone knows AMZN will fall HUGE. We just don't know what day it starts
Sometimes it can happen on earnings like it did for apple and other times it just is random. AMZN will have its day and once the cards fall it will be big. Bigger than Apple or Netflix ever were.
AMZN's lack of margins at best could offer it a wal-mart like multiple say 13 to 15. Amazon will have to constantly spend money to grow revenue. They simply need as much warehouse space as their revenue growth so the scaling never happens. The only time spending can stop is when growth stops but we know what happens then right?
I see the free pass to Bezos ending sometime. Could be tomorrow, next week, next month or next year but it will happen. When it does we'll see a stock price between $20 and $50 per share. Most likely on the lower end of that range.
Why not buy Jan 2015 $115 puts, you can buy them for $4.10. When the stock hits $50, those puts will be worth $ 65, you'll multiply your money by 16! Sounds like the perfect investment for someone like you. So what is your position?
They barely break-even. WS is playing the game of "they're in these hot new businesses that are sure to takeoff, so we'll hold on." Don't you have to have earnings to justify a stock price Oh?
Maybe you don't. Just look at Workday(WDAY) Everytime they ink a contract, it's for a loss. Of course, trying to compete against Oracle, SAP and Salesforce is causing that. And, Ellison, who bought out the WDAY founders when he tookover People Soft, has an ax to grind. The stock has a MC of $9 bilion and they lose $50 million on every $100 million of sales. Kind of a dumb way to run a business. Amazingly, some brokers are putting out buys at higher prices. They must be trying get their customers out of the IPO was sold despite dubious prospects.
No single person controls or nor a consortium. This is just "herd" psychology. I was a psych major which actually makes investing easy when you know how people are likely to react and act. Fear and Greed. Fight or Flight. Once the fall begins the hard wired fear and flight kick in. It becomes overwhelming. Look at apple. Sellers dumping this at 6 times earnings ex-cash and it can still drop another 30%! Only thing that matters to people is preservation at any cost once the tumble begins.
Amazon could see this tomorrow. Earnings are the highest likelihood for the spark that ignites. It could be this one or next one or a future one. We'll just have to wait and see when the free pass for Bezos gives out and panic starts. Maybe Apple spooked some to see what is possible especially in a cheap stock. Now they have a hyper expensive stock with little earnings prospects. This is going to be a huge fall...