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  • geegenjar geegenjar Jan 29, 2013 8:44 AM Flag

    Techstrategy, I'm still waiting for your explanation.

    Techstrategy, you promised to explain "conditional probability" as related to your going long INTC and going short AMZN last year.

    I'm still waiting for your explanation.

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    Re: Re: Short the rips - dont cover the dips
    by geegenjar . Oct 5, 2012 5:12 PM . Permalink

    I tell you this people. Both techstrategy and philandjoel1e are deranged. You don't want to commit suicide with them. Read their posts only for entertainment purpose.

    Oh by the way techstrategy is doing pump and dump. On September 11, he bought 100 contracts of April 2013 calls @ 25 for Intel at about one dollar. Today's price? .56 -.58. Almost cut in half.

    He started shorting AMZN around $220 and you know where she it today.

    The probability of losing both bets in a set of two is 25 percent. Techstrategy nailed it! He accomplished only 1 out of 4 people can accomplish if they acted purely randomly!



    Re: Re: Re: Short the rips - dont cover the dips
    by techstrategy . Oct 5, 2012 5:31 PM . Permalink

    By the way, I have tripled that original INTC position yesterday. And, I have no intention of selling any of those contracts before 2Q 2013, I will hold the 2014 and 2015 contracts to maturity, unless INTC drops a lot, in which case I will sell to move deeper into the money.

    It's called investing Geeg. It's about recognizing assets that are being systematically mispriced and capitalizing upon it... Chump.

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Short the rips - dont cover the dips
    by geegenjar . Oct 5, 2012 8:52 PM . Permalink

    "By the way, I have tripled that original INTC position yesterday."

    So you bought 200 more contracts? What's the average cost for all 300 contracts now?

    By the way, if INTC goes up significantly, AMZN will go up even more. So you'll lose money on these two combined anyway.

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Short the rips - dont cover the dips
    by techstrategy . Oct 5, 2012 10:35 PM . Permalink

    This shows an even more profound lack of understanding of options than your prior statement did of conditional probability.... I'll let you try to figure out why. If you cannot and give up, I'll explain it later...

    Re: Short the rips - dont cover the dips
    by geegenjar . Oct 6, 2012 6:59 AM . Permalink

    Techstrategy wrote:

    "This shows an even more profound lack of understanding of options than your prior statement did of conditional probability.... I'll let you try to figure out why. If you cannot and give up, I'll explain it later..."

    Yes, they're both totally beyond me, but I'm willing to learn. Can you teach me? Thank you.

    Re: Re: Short the rips - dont cover the dips
    by techstrategy . Oct 6, 2012 10:51 AM . Permalink

    Not yet -- I'll explain in another month or so.

    You only understand options as a trading vehicle and not an investment vehicle -- mainly because you and most of the folks transacting options are mainly focused upon ST (weekly/monthly) options where theta decay is crushing and holding is flat out stupid.

    Good luck Geeg.

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    Thanks, professor.

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