So if the data on yahoo is correct,our amazing analysts are expecting $4 EPS for 2014.
One would want to see how accurate they have been recently;
Analyst EPS estimate 2011- $1.95 actual $1.37
2012- $2.08 actual $-0.09
2013- $3.68 current estimate $1.7
Those are amazing forecasts aren't they, especially 2012 and 2013, these guys definately deserve the high salaries they make for these perfect estimates. 2013 actual the way AMZN is going may end up negative as well. That $4 in 2014 looks like a sure bet.
"Again, I challenge you to put specific and real numbers ... "
When the investment thesis involves future there can be no "real" numbers. Those looking for them wind up like you, frustrated. What the market does is simply look at Amazon's track record of going for several years into investment programs that begin with losses and end with multiple years of huge profits. So it isn't measuring by isolated strings of annual ROIC but rather multiple years of investment expansion followed by large returns in multiple years.
If you haven't figured that out in the past numbers, then my posting anything is not going to change your mind. You're simply too lazy to look at the SEC filings over that long a period. I challenge you to put up specific numbers that refute what I have described above.
"(TGT, WMT matching), state tax collection shifts the mix in adverse ways (both product and channel). That's just to start."
Ha! What a joke. Brick and mortar are simply showrooms for Amazon. Even those retailers you name are going the way of BKS and BBY. I guess you didn't realize that Walmart is essential flat in marketshare gains during the past 3 years. Factoring in inflation, Walmart's growth over that stretch is probably NEGATIVE.
And over a 5 year period, as Amazon more than tripled its share of retail with 225% growth vs. 18% for Walmart. Again, factoring in inflation, Walmart grew by only 1-2% per year during that time or essentially flat. Now that Amazon can move right next to where customers live it is going to cut even further into brick and mortar share.
That's the great thing about being a pumper for a "story stock", especially one like Amazon that keeps shifting the story as it becomes clear the economics won't work on the past ones...
I will be putting out real analysis that shows that the economics of expansion are destroying value. Rather than BS about margins, when one looks at the true tradeoff embedded in geographic expansion (more capex, inventory carrying cost and fulfillment opex versus transportation cost savings), you can show that it is NOT providing claimed leverage... (though part of the effect is just expanding into products and categories where the underlying economics were never going to be compelling...). ROIC dropping, Inventory turns dropping. Gross shipping cost as a % of revenue increasing and net only dropping because of transfer revenue from Prime.
This will rate with Enron in time...
"What the market does is simply look at Amazon's track record of going for several years into investment programs that begin with losses and end with multiple years of huge profits."
Huge profits? I know you like to pump but at least don't be so obvious. AMZN since 2001 has made almost as much profits as Target makes in a year. $4.4 Billion (since 2001) vs $3.4 billion( this year for target)
"Brick and mortar are simply showrooms for Amazon."
Yes like target with profits that Amazon has never ever been close to. Best year AMZN had was $1.2 billion in profits.
Great post. Unfortunately the majority are sell side analysts who aren't paid to be right. They're overhead and their reports are pretty generic. They're like the PR and marketing for bringing in net new assets, increasing trading volume and secretly supporting the i-banking side. I only read reports from buy side analysts, who are actually paid to be right, and most of those reports are generic as well.
Ignore the noise and stay strong. It is much worse than currently being reported. I guess analysts do not understand activity based management/costing, nor are they able to accurately #$%$ tradeoff between shipping costs and additional distribution centers...
Too bad the analysts suffer no penalty or pain from systematically pumping stocks. Just another part of our broken capital markets.
So they updated the numbers, now 2014 EPS estimate has been revised from $4 to $3.68, and 2013 is revised to 1.47 from $1.7,
$3.68 is a funny number, that used to be what the analysts expected EPS to be for 2013.
"Too bad the analysts suffer no penalty or pain from systematically pumping stocks. Just another part of our broken capital markets."
This astonishes me to be honest, especially since they have such an influence on the markets. If after 2008 we had corrected the markets, this wouldn't happen again.
It is just funny that year after year analysts are wrong on AMZN earnings, and then they keep increasing their price targets and it has worked for them so far.
Ignore nemesis, he has been lucky but he has been the biggest amzn pumper, always claiming that earnings will magically appear year after year.
Ignore the noise of the short cheerleaders and get smart. It is much worse for shorts than currently being shilled here. I guess tehcstrategy who shorted from $180, knows nothing about retail, after all his handle is not "retailstragegy", and therefore does not understand that the newer additions to distribution are closer to key markets resulting in lower shipping costs.
Too bad tehcstrategy now finding the stock at over $270, has suffered great pain from systematically failing to learn a single thing about e-commerce. Just another part of our misguided short-selling dreamers.