Conventional wisdom (that ignores negative feedback loops) is $400. Economic reality dictates sub $100. But, Amazon could go lower. It has levered up in all senses (off balance sheet leases, debt, days payable), so it is more vulnerable that in 2008 when it was still focused on high value density items with limited fixed costs...
With the right macro shock, Amazon could become insolvent (and that's when this will surpass Enron as the greatest scam of all time). At that point, the Scamalysts will downgrade their price targets to $250 and an overweight rating...
Those analysts would just move onto another stock tech. With the amount of taxes amzn is paying and the amount of fixed costs it has like you mentioned compared to 2008 a market crash would hurt amzn much more.
If you can't afford to lose money, DON'T SHORT AMZN. I'm shouting at you. Amazon's share price will keep rising, read about it here:
Can't see institutional investors buying at these levels. They are the ones who decide on the pps.
People like you or me don't count at all.
Guess it has 0% upside and 100% downside.
How much lower ? Depends on the market.
If the markets are going up/flat I see amzn go slowly to $200 by end of the year.
If the markets have a violent down period amzn can go down twice the speed to $100.
Yesterday was good example ( DOWW -1%, amzn - 2+% )