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Amazon.com, Inc. Message Board

  • techstrategy techstrategy Feb 22, 2013 3:27 PM Flag

    Amazon now up significantly more than AAPL over the past two years...

    Which cannot be explained by profits or cash from operations... obviously.

    Nor can it be explained by revenue growth (AAPL up 150% or so in the period, AMZN up only about 90%), AAPL's revenue growth is still on par with Amazon's, but its revenue growth is profitable.

    The best predictor of a stock's multiple is the concentration of float and who owns it. In other words, the degree to which tacit collusion can enable trading profits from scalping...

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    • But, on an enterprise value basis, the comparison is MUCH more egregious. Apple has grown its net cash by about 70B from year end 2010 to year end 2012. That accounts for about 75% of the increase in market cap over the period. Amazon, in contrast, grew its cash+ST investments from about $9B to $11B, but took on $3B in LT debt -- in other words, no net increase in net cash.

      Someday, the trading scam being run between these stocks will get the attention it deserves...

    • Look at the minute chart of AAPL and AMZN together... No question how this scam is being run...

    • Techstrategy, if you know so much about the stock market and how it works, why you haven't made any money with your AMZN shorts for almost a year? You nor Sybil knows nothing. You people are just armchair "wantedtobe" speculators.

      • 2 Replies to geegenjar
      • You should bought calls for next week Geeg. Amazon struggled today and needed capital from AAPL because POMO was limited. Monday, the operation is much larger, so the big finance houses can use more money printed out of thin air to reward value destruction and penalize true stores of value (anyone wonder why CBOE lowered margins on gold awhile back -- it was so those beating it down could use more leverage...) and companies truly generating economic value (thus why AAPL and INTC get suppressed).

      • What I know about is true economic value creation and value capture, which has little to do with the current functioning of the stock market. Today's market is driven by WS's need for trading profits. It is being run for churn to try to generate the cash flow to perpetuate that which cannot be sustained. Rather than making the necessary adjustments, the Fed continues to pursue policies to enable the current model for a little while longer, all while undermining INVESTMENT in productive assets (which are typically illiquid and thus not where the money is going).

        Sybs is correct that stock multiples have changed in a statistically significant way since the introduction of weekly options. The best investments based upon fundamentals have been systematically repressed and the most speculative float jam #$%$ has seen multiple expansion. The move by so many institutional longs to generate returns by selling options has exacerbated the discrepancy. As a result, the market is actually sending signals that reward value destruction rather than value creation, all in the interest of trading profits...

        This will end VERY badly, Much worse than anyone anticipates now because WS will never be able to regain the trust of the public this time. Capital will be pulled from the capital markets and held in cash, physical gold and our investment model will increasingly localize again.

        I am playing for the long haul Geeg. Not the short term.

 
AMZN
490.48+8.41(+1.74%)Feb 10 4:00 PMEST