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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

  • geegenjar geegenjar Apr 4, 2013 12:26 AM Flag

    Techstrategy the great long-term investor

    Techstrategy's INTC saga update:

    "The prices of INTC calls on the days techstrategy purchased them:

    April, 2013 @ 25 on September 11, 2012:

    O .95 H 1.08 L .95 C1.01

    January, 2014 @25 on October 4, 2012:

    O .1.23 H 1.32 L 1.20 C1.25

    January, 2015 @25 on October 4, 2012:

    O .1.94 H 2.03 L 1.92 C 2.03

    Currently . . . (October 8, 2012):

    April, 2013 @ 25

    .49

    January, 2014 @25

    1.24

    January, 2015 @25

    1.98

    Keep us posted on your progress, techstrategy!"

    Today (April 3, 2013):

    April, 2013 @ 25

    Bid/Ask: 0.00/0.01

    January, 2014 @25

    Bid/Ask: 0.35/0.37

    January, 2015 @25

    Bid/Ask: 1.02/1.06

    These are the results of our resident, long-term investor.

    I wonder if his wife knows how much he's lost in the last year "speculating" in the stock market.

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    • Try as you may to focus on my mistakes, I've been correct more than incorrect. I nailed NFLX, GMCR and CMG which were all float jam scams, like this one. Check the GMCR board, I went long at $17 while the famous shorts were still focused on it going to zero with a $40 target (which was obviously too low). Check RIMM. Long at 7.50 when everyone said it would go to zero. Then there GRPN, for which you and NAS mocked me for buying at $3.30 AH and tripling up at $2.75 effective price by selling puts. Did okay there too...

      All of my calls have proven right in time. I nailed the real economics on all of the BS momo plays, just as I have here. This will crater because it is truly a scam. As average transaction size drops, the profit per shipment drops, especially for Prime members who have prepaid for a year of free delivery. If the is an oil shock (Middle East unrest or whatever the catalyst), Amazon would need to pull a NFLX and change deal with customer (actually worse as it would likely have to break/default on its contract with existing customer still in the Prime 12 month contract). Even if/as gas falls (because it will only happen in a weak economy), the decline in profit per shipment from smaller average transaction will hurt.

      Try to focus people on a few positions that have moved against me. Those that read my posts over years know the track record of correctly analyzing the economics and competitive dynamics -- and that I'm always too early...

 
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