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  • hddriven hddriven Apr 26, 2013 6:51 PM Flag

    Monday action expected


    First of all , a disclosure, I am short shares of AMZN.
    Market makers took in a lot of stock today, and partiularly option market makers will get put a ton of stock over the weekend due to in the money puts being exercised.
    Therefore, after a premarket down along the lines of what we are seeing now, at some point early on monday , they will mount a rally in the shares so they can distribute the shares they have had to eat. People who are shorting these lower levels will get caught and the rally could be violent for a time, but then I expect it will run its course and downward path will be resumed. I plan to short more when it rallies as I outlined above.

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    • Having said that, the best competitive strategy for a medium size holder will be to sell everything into the wondow dressing and let others scramble for life rafts after window dressing. The Titanic is sinking. Look at the changes in cash over the past two years. The buildout simply isn't providing real economic leverage (and for those who don't understand activity based costing / real cost drivers, look at the RISE in fulfillment and even NET shipping as a percent of sales between Q4 and Q1 to understand the impact of smaller average order size and lower aggregate demand on Amazon's performance). I'll share more later, but if we head into recession, this could be an epic casualty...

503.82+13.34(+2.72%)Feb 11 4:00 PMEST