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  • bogdanmiltchev bogdanmiltchev May 15, 2013 10:03 AM Flag

    AMZN stock drop will be sharp and educational

    Bezos will face charges for misleading investors. RUN!!!

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • We're already at $245 a couple of weeks ago. This thing will either be propped up a while longer or will go the route of Apple or worse. Since it's too big, there is no place to unload anywhere so I'll go with the propping option as long as the market keep reaching new highs. it will be okay as long as the insiders doesn't sale en masse. Since hitting almost $250 in 2011, it has gone practically no where in the next two years while the market is at an all time high. It's a sign that institutions are holding a dog but can't liquidate without serious losses so the extend and pretend will have to go a while longer when the revenue is still growing 20%+ . My guess is when growth drop to the teens, they will run for the exits even faster than Apple especially with no earnings to show for. We maybe a quarter or two away from this scenario if the current economic conditions show no signs of improving or getting worse. Bezos can build all the warehouses he want, it will not matter.

      • 2 Replies to tung_5000
      • That is the issue for large AMZN longs - you can;t get out - there is zero volume (0.5% per day). They are holding the bag alright, and must be nervous - this will drop fast once it does.

      • Follow the changes in cash balance over the past few years by quarter. Check out the growth in days payable. Between increase in days payable and increase in gift cards, Amazon's has inflated its cash by about $2.7B. Should the economy materially weaken (especially if we did have a shock), the unwind of that $2,7B would be rather difficult right now (pushing current ratio below 1...). If all the gift cards / accrued liabilities were to be redeemed, Amazon would need to have a distressed offering... And all this despite raising $3B in LT debt in Q4 (which puts debt to book equity at industry norms).

        This scam is running out of cash to perpetuate itself... No cash for buybacks makes the frontrunning float jam games harder....

    • To what price range do u speak of? 240-250 or ?? Please be transparent unless u have something to hide.

      Sentiment: Sell

    • There are no investors. How do you mislead a robotic high freq trading system?

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