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  • techstrategy techstrategy May 15, 2013 4:03 PM Flag

    Almost there...

    AAPL in its final shakeout of longs, AMZN in its final shakeout of shorts. By end of May, trends will reverse... I doubt Amazon will ever recover from what is coming.

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    • We shall see tech, I haven't seen a big reversal yet, wasn't expecting this run on AMZN from $245 to $270 based but it still did, same with LNKD from $171 to $191, craziness.

      • 1 Reply to kenji100
      • I knew that it was going to get crazy in the last throws. This is the desperation of a system nearing catastrophic failure... The bond squeeze has been underway. It will fail. People like my parents are happy to see capital returned and hold TBills.

        It looks to me at this point that it be gold that leads to the systemic crisis because the FED and TBTF/SIFI/BB continue to try to break it down when trust in those institutions is GONE.The games taking place right now demonstrate why no one trusts the financial sector anymore, making gold an essential asset in the portfolio. Physical demand is not abating and will not abate. We've already seen technical defaults in gold (settlement with paper rather than bullion). It will get worse... There will either by significant defaults on contracts, or there will be a reversal and parabolic ascent.

        Just wait here. The real economy is not strong. Amazon will see its gift card redemptions accelerate and its average order size/shipment decrease, especially amongst "Discount/Value Prime" (the new cohort which is joining Prime based upon multiple stacked loss leader versus "High Value / High Purchasing Power Prime" which joined because they would save money on large volumes of purchases). The profitability will drop even more, especially if/as gas prices remain elevated from geopolitical risks.

        The entirety of this scam will see light of day...

    • Tech - are you basing that on the 2 hedgies that exited Apple last Q (announced today)? Why does it stop at the end of May? You have my private e-mail if you want to keep it private.

      • 1 Reply to once_on
      • Hedge funds have apparently also given up on fundamentals since they've been pounded by the collusion over the past few years... The anti-fundamental trade hit a feverish pitch today that smacked of desperation... AAPL shorts are stacking up... They even brought out some jacka$$ today who said AAPL should be at $240 (humorous given its cash position) based upon ROIC analysis (gotta love it when analysts are penalizing companies that deliver high ROIC by investing only in truly strategic assets and capabilities rather than taking Amazon's approach of investing in redundant distribution infrastructure in a manner that does not materially change the cost to serve).

        Anti-AAPL, anti-gold, anti-intc... non stop propaganda from CNBC and other financial media sources to bash anything that looks like a reasonable valuation on fundamentals. Cheerleading for what are unquestionably trading scams (like Tepper, there are a lot of people who have to get out of these scams while the getting is good...).

        The AAPL/AMZN divergence is back up to record levels... All it takes is one enterprising fund to literally dominate performance and crush everyone else's in one fell swoop. There aren't often opportunities to realize huge gains while dramatically reducing LT risk in the portfolio....

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