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  • tail_risk tail_risk Jul 20, 2013 9:26 AM Flag


    Most of the shorts on the board are well aware of AMZN's poor and deteriorating fundamentals.
    One thing that has me a bit concerned is you could make the same argument that amzn is overvalued in the stock price was 200 instead of 300.
    My question is why would investors suddenly realize that amzn is overvalued now? Why would fundamental start to matter now?

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    • when the money will runout.... and it is running out
      we believe that AMZN can not be better then WMT,NFLX,AAPL, google , HBO in the same time
      AMZN trying to do every thing better then every one.....
      well this will lead to money lose

      remember when the little child point to the king and said the king is naked!!!
      this day is very close

    • Scamazon went from $86 in 1999 to $6 in 2001. Back then, Scamazon had little competitors. Fast forward to 2013. Scamazon's competitors include Samsung, APPL, IBM, MSFT, WMT, BBY, TGT, EBAY, NFLX, and other big guns. Most of these guys make enough money to pay a dividend. Scamazon is still barely profitable after 16 years of operation. CEO's only claim to fame is the promise of massive EPS somewhere down the road.

      Once the mania is over, Scamazon's stock price will be cut by 90%, again. It will never be "different this time". Even after a 90% hair cut, $30 is still to expensive for a retailer with no dividend and 1% profit margin. I doubt that Scamazon will be able to squeeze out more than 80 cents earning for 2013.

      Don't mistake a bubble stock for a great investment. The crooks in WS don't have any real $ till they hit the sell buttons.

    • Right, there will not be any sudden changes is perceptions, but if fundamentals are combined with technical analysis, then there could at least be the basis for a reasonable probability trade. The market is at record highs, and many earnings reports have been disappointing, if that continues the broad market should react as well.

    • vornash Jul 20, 2013 12:45 PM Flag

      No one can answer that question. Sentiment drives these things, and it can shift for reasons that are beyond analysis. Look at a one year graph of the stocks. Draw an up-channel of support and top lines upward. Notice how we're at the very top here? The short term risk of higher moves is low and downside is high. Revenue better be supportive of this trend and continue to increase at 22% yearly.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Only thing that's keeping Scamazon at this level is the $85B monthly cash infusion from the FED. The crooks in WS always have an exit strategy 3-6 months before the actual event. Tapering will happen later this year or early 2014. Upside is perhaps another 5% for the US market, but then there is a strong chance that the market will peak in 2013 and bottom out at 30-40% below current level.

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