Miss, downbeat CC: $205 worst case
Beat, upbeat CC: $320 best case imho
Assymetrical risk imho, favors bears.
UPS miss may mean shipments are down.
I would place the price probabilities as follows:
above $310 Friday: 5%
below $280: 25%
And of the $25 chance in the "below $280" category, perhaps a 5% chance of a plunge to low $200s as a worst case.
Jeff should be grilled on the silly grocery idea if the analysts do their jobs. Most previos internet grocery schemes have not panned out.