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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

  • HerBeauty HerBeauty Jan 22, 1998 11:30 AM Flag

    Come on Boys Act like Men and BUY! BUY!

    Come on Buy more guys Its only gonna go up
    and then you'll be sorry you did'nt buy more.
    And as for all those grumpy OLD men on this board you don't
    have a clue how life works in the 90s its the INTERNET
    thats were the ACTION IS. This company is probably like
    the newest idea and the best people on the Internet
    Its gonna go to a $100 a share real soon so Get outa
    the way take your Walkers and go to the park and leave
    the investing to the New Generation.

    HerBeauty :)

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    • Lets not forget that historically the 4 rth Quarter is the biggest selling quarter for all
      the booksellers. It is the Xmas season, and for BKS and BGP always the biggest in
      sales and usually the ONLY profitable quarter. Why will AMZN be any diferrent?
      There is a very good chance that Q1 sales will be flat or less than those of the Xmas
      season. Then what happens to the stock when everyone starts screaming that sales
      growth (the only thing they have going for them) slows down?.......................;^)

    • You're right; Amazon will almost certainly do a secondary offering. Maybe this explains all the upgrades - the brokerage houses all want AMZN's business!

    • Predicting how AMZN will do tomarrow is very difficult, if not impossible. However, here are some reasons why the stock will have a very difficult time in the next few weeks:

      1) Earnings - did AMZN meet analysts expectations? No, not at all, if you look at the financial statements. In particular, look on the B/S - there is an account named deferred charges, in the amount of $2.24 million. There was no such account in previous statements. Where did this account come from? This amount represent a charge equivalent to 9 cents a share. AMZN posted a net loss of 39 cents, include these chares, and net loss would have been 48 cents. Creative accounting?

      2) AMZN now has $76 million in long term debt. Servicing this debt comes to about 5 -7 cents (conservative estimate) a quarter in interest expense. This creates additional expenses that AMZN now has to cover.

      3) The lock up period for restricted shares has been ended. Which means insiders are free sell their shares, within SEC regulations of course.

      4) The last few days AMZN volume has been heavy. Possible reason: the shorts were covering (short squeeze). Perhaps wanting to close their positions before the earnings release. Now that the shorts have covered, there is increased pressure to short the stock again.

      This is a very tricky game. Unsophisticated investors are advised to stay out of the game.

      Good day.

    • I Think AMZN has gone up in hopes of record LOSSES being less than expected. The news is out and I expect AMZN to peak very soon.

      AMZN book value per share is just over $1 per share. Based on expected losses, AMZN will have a negative net worth by the end of this year. They will have to doan equity offering in Q1 or Q2 at the latest. When this is announced, the stock will go down.

      If you can't tell, I short and plan to stay that way.

    • That 'long term' debt is not very long term, unless they want to pay a couple more percentage points for it!

    • Ok, here's my take on the earnings report.

      The good (for Amazon): Losses were about $0.05 less than expected. Gross profit margin sequentially quarter to quarter was up from 18.9% to 19.5%.

      The bad (for Amazon): Gross profit margin is pretty much flat for the year at 19.5% and down a lot from last year when it was 22%. When is this new economics of not having a brick and mortar store supposed to kick in? Also, AMZN seems to be building a hefty chuck of long term debt.

      My opinion is that if AMZN were still at $30, this would be a good report, but its hardly a great report and doesn't seem to justify the price. However, I've grown tired of trying to predict when AMZN will drop.

    • AMZN: BANCAM/ROB STEP made new estimate for fiscal year ending
      12/97 of $-1.25 on 01/21/98
      AMZN: BANCAM/ROB STEP made new estimate for fiscal year ending
      12/98 of $-1.35 on 01/21/98
      AMZN: BANCAM/ROB STEP made new estimate for quarter ending
      03/98 of $-0.48 on 01/21/98
      AMZN: BANCAM/ROB STEP made new estimate for quarter ending
      06/98 of $-0.40 on 01/21/98
      AMZN: BANCAM/ROB STEP made new estimate for quarter ending
      09/98 of $-0.33 on 01/21/98
      AMZN: BANCAM/ROB STEP made new estimate for quarter ending
      12/97 of $-0.47 on 01/21/98
      AMZN: BANCAM/ROB STEP made new estimate for quarter ending
      12/98 of $-0.15 on 01/21/98

    • toycruiser, after market trading was only 11,000 shares.....last 4000 was at 62 5/8................volume was very light so I think there is nothing you can read into it. if you put a gun to my head i would guess AMZN opens the high tomorrow and goes straight down from there............ 15 more hours to go....;^)

    • Canstic,

      Obviously, Herbeauty thinks it is a good report...

      Not withstanding her remark, do you or anyone here know where AMZN was trading after 4:00 pm?

      Another question: Why do some companies, like AMZN, not announce the earnings reports date and surprise the hell out of the stock holders?

    • Amazon lost $1.17 for the year of 1997. the losses are increasing as the sales increase. 1998 is also forcast as a losing year. The diference here will be that the FLOAT in 1998 will be double triple maybe even 5 times as much as it was in 1997. If one insider sells, perhaps just 3 million shares out of the 19 million held (15%) to DOUBLE the float......then the shorts would have no problem covering, and in theory the stock would be worth half as much, or 30$, no?........;^)

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AMZN
327.76+3.87(+1.19%)Sep 16 4:00 PMEDT

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