Oh Ron- I forgot to tell you. I sold my AHP position this week for a 50% profit since April'97 (damn, wish it was LT Cap gain).That is the knid of stock you need to be buying, not this internet TECH junk.There are too many good investments out there that can make you very rich OVER TIME but everyone seems to be in a hurry. That a bad sign for the market!
Are you sure those trades, especially the 20,000 trade were for real?
If so, either that sale of 20,000 was pre-arranged (then there was also a buyer for it) or the bid should have dropped a lot.
Try selling that many shares at the market and see where the next bid is! :)
In case nobody noticed.
The last time I looked, there were 2 after market trades. The first one of 500 at $58.125 and the second 20,000 at $58.125. Total volume for the day was 218,900, thus the last two after market trades represent almost 12% of what went through during normal trading hours. Some big boy has been selling when nobody was looking. Naughty, naughty.
Is this the beginning of the end?
Lots of luck, or should I say strength.
I've been wrapped up in a debate with Jeff Fischer of the Motley Fools. The debate is centered around many of the same issues being discussed on this board. Check out my response at:
Yeah, I knew it was the amount the stock has to move to double the option price, but for some reason I am always curious to know the mathematics behind it. Maybe it was derived from the Black-Scholes model.
Thanks for the useful info. Next time I am in Barnes and Noble I'll look for Bittman. (Don't they have great coffee?)
My uncle ordered Omni Option station for me as a gift, maybe this program includes the "price to double" feature....
Has anyone used Omni Option station? Is that a useful program?
I am somewhat familiar with the term "move to double", what is I think the same thing = the amount stock must move to double
option price. I don't know exactly how to calculate it but I have a piece of software that calculates it if you know what the
perceived volatility is of the share price is. The percieved volatility can be back calculated with the same software from actual
market prices. The software is called OP-VAL and can be ordered from OP-VAL, Suite 200, 2501 N Lincoln Avenue, Chicago, IL 60614.
It only cost $10 + $1.50. Better is to buy a book by James B. Bittman, "Options for the Stock Investor", ISBN 1-55738-872-5;
this book includes the disk and explains how to use the program. You will find that doing option model calculations is not an
easy task, but I figured out that if I bought JUL 50 put shares now, they should be costing me about $6 (159 days before
expiration if I buy monday. Theoretically The price will double if the share price drops to approximately $42 in the next 30 days, or
28% from current level. The back calculated volatility of AMZN is 75% (= annualized standard deviation of the stock's daily
price movement). I agree that the puts are not cheap, but then there is no such thing as a free lunch, or is there (AMZN)?
By the way, I bought the book at Barnes & Noble after spending a Sunday afternoon drinking coffee and going through the business section. I wanted to buy a good book on options trading, but was not aware of what was available. On the way out I spent an hour listening at the latest blues recordings on CD and bought a few CD's. I thought it was an afternoon well spent. Can you do the same thing at at Amazon.com? I doubt it; you only go to Amazon.com if you know what you want!
I am so sick of hearing about this great new super dynamic business model!!! Does this model include making money any time
soon?? All of the real #s look terrible and if it wasn't for the hype thistock would be valued at 20 and still need evrything to go
right to justify that.Bezos talks the same way,model,model, model never money,money,money.Are we to buy this BS...tell me "value
analyst" one solid reason why anybody can't do what amzn is doing...hell there are already discounters and net-clubs selling books
for less...they have good models too!!
Therefore I am not sure if it is worth the risk at this point, unless you buy way deep in the money puts. I purchased March puts on it's way up from $60~62 range so I paid much less premium.
Does anyone know what the "price to double" means and how it is calculated? I have read this in one of Wade Cook books but he didn't offer any mathematical explanation of this. I cannot find the term in McMillan.