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  • InternetShorter InternetShorter Dec 25, 1998 12:14 PM Flag

    Dow Jone 12/23/98 Online Contest To Pred

    Yahoo Inc.
    Contest at Silicon Investor
    http://www.techstocks.com

    Dow Jones Newswires -- December 23, 1998

    Fund Mgr Holds Online Contest To Predict Web Stock
    Drop
    By Johanna Bennett

    NEW YORK (Dow
    Jones)--A New York fund manager wants to know when he
    should short Internet stocks and he is willing to pay
    $5,000 for the right answer.

    Known to members of
    the popular financial Web site Silicon Investor only
    by his alias, "Auric Goldfinger," the mysterious
    online figure is sponsoring a contest, offering a $5,000
    cash prize to anyone who predicts not only when the
    Internet bubble will burst but also the reason for the
    plunge.

    For Goldfinger, the right information is
    valuable.

    Although he claims not to have any short
    positions in Internet shares, Goldfinger, who refused to
    reveal his identity when interviewed by phone, has
    shorted Web stocks in the past.

    Investors who
    sell securities "short" borrow stock and sell it,
    betting the price will decline and they will be able to
    buy the shares back later at a lower price for
    repayment to the lender.

    "Some of the people are
    smart out there," Goldfinger said. "If they come up
    with an idea that makes sense, it will help my
    trading. I am just trying to ferret it out. And that's
    worth $5,000."

    The contest rules are fairly
    simple. Entries must be posted on the message board,
    explaining in 50 words or less when and why an index of five
    Internet stocks - America Online Inc. (AOL), Yahoo! Inc.
    (YHOO), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), eBay Inc. (EBAY) and CMGI
    Inc. (CMGI) - will fall 40% for five consecutive
    trading days.

    A panel of three judges will pick
    the winning entry.

    The notion has attracted
    attention. Goldfinger's message board on Silicon Investor,
    entitled "Tulipmania Blowoff Contest," has drawn more than
    130 responses since it was posted Monday afternoon,
    making it one of the site's most popular message
    board.

    Little wonder.

    Web stocks have been
    surging for the better part of the last month, defying
    all explanation as companies like Amazon.com, AOL and
    eBay continue to hit unprecedented highs.

    The
    situation has confounded Wall Street and driven away short
    sellers, for whom Web stocks have always been a popular
    target.

    "No one could have stayed short on these stocks
    for the last three months and had any equity left,"
    said one hedge fund manager. "The short community has
    figured they can't get in front of this freight
    train."

    That doesn't mean others aren't going to
    try.

    Among the contestants, Kevin Podsiadlik predicted
    shares will fall on Jan. 4. He cited a number of
    factors, including the belief that fund managers are
    holding onto Web stocks as "window dressing for their
    end-of-the-year prospectus and will then dump their
    shares."

    James Gottesman agreed with the Jan. 4
    prediction, explaining that "e-commerce sites are crazy" and
    people are holding the stocks for tax reasons to avoid
    realizing capital gains this year.

    "I bet it will
    start early in the morning," Gottesman wrote. "By the
    end of the week, Internet stocks will be back to
    reality."

    Meanwhile, "Jorj X. McKie" predicted the tumble
    will begin Feb. 1 amid a selloff caused by widespread
    credit card fraud due to "ineffective security measures"
    by online shopping sites.

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    • You see, I've been around a long time. I've seen it all. If ou think you can time the market you will soon be poor. You must find solid companies with high margin sales, or proprietary technology. At least the industry must have a barrier to entry. amzn has nothing at all to offer. Nothing. It's far overpriced which even the most devout longs readily admit.

      It's not going to take long for this to fall back to earth. Perhaps others got burned going short; I doubt it. The short percentage continues to grow. You see shorting a stock is left for professional investors. We have patience. If there is any upside, it's tiny. The downside is all the way to zero when the company can't meet its financial obligations. See bostq for a recent example of an over hyped stock.

      This, and ebay, are the best investments in recent history. It required studying the financials tosee bostq was a ponzi scheme. This is right out in the open for all to see. It sure is ugly!!!!!

    • all of us are actually united in that we are all
      here to make a PROFIT!!! YOU unamaerican commie pinko
      shorts( just kidding- hell if I can MAKE money shorting
      I'll do it-- but I do prefer optimism over pessimism--
      good luck---- I will call you every kind of
      dumbsunuvabitch- but I respect your position & your right to state
      what you think !!!!!

    • You say, "the short percentage continues to
      grow". But in fact it is way down by 500,000 shares this
      month (see Investor's Business Daily 12/28/98). This
      means, that the squeeze is ebbing and we could see a
      sell off after the split, IMHO.

    • You see, I've been around a long time. I've seen
      it all. If ou think you can time the market you will
      soon be poor. You must find solid companies with high
      margin sales, or proprietary technology. At least the
      industry must have a barrier to entry. amzn has nothing at
      all to offer. Nothing. It's far overpriced which even
      the most devout longs readily admit.

      It's not
      going to take long for this to fall back to earth.
      Perhaps others got burned going short; I doubt it. The
      short percentage continues to grow. You see shorting a
      stock is left for professional investors. We have
      patience. If there is any upside, it's tiny. The downside
      is all the way to zero when the company can't meet
      its financial obligations. See bostq for a recent
      example of an over hyped stock.

      This, and ebay,
      are the best investments in recent history. It
      required studying the financials tosee bostq was a ponzi
      scheme. This is right out in the open for all to see. It
      sure is ugly!!!!!

    • What's wrong with being terrified - it's usually the sign of a good trade. When you feel like nothing can hurt you, it probably will.

    • in its beginnings, nor DELL, nor The Gap.
      "comparing MSFT to IBM, what a fool"
      "comparing DELL to Digital Equipment, what a fool"
      "comparing GPS to Levi Strauss, what a fool"

    • i bet you didn't sleep too well this weekend...
      "oh this fucking Amzn, please not *again*!!" probably you were saying...

    • Short at $318 and lovin' it!!!

      You need
      to study history. Irrational exuberance (to quote
      greenspan) creates a euphoria where the impression is stocks
      will always go up. This is exactly the stupidity that
      was abound throughout the market immediately prior to
      the '29 crash. You think it won't happen again. The
      instability caused by idiot hypesters and the sheep which
      followed have caused irreparable harm to the economy.
      We'll all suffer; those that bought overpriced internet
      stocks will be hit hardest. And it will happen in an
      instant. The NASD MMs are going to royally screw all of
      the naive idiots that are holding companies with no
      earnings.

      Comparing amzn to wal-mart. What a fool!!!
      LOL

    • why else whould you spend all day lurking in
      these board advising people to "sell, sell, sell",
      "it's gonna plummet", "it's all over, it's a scam,
      Bezos is being investigated", etc.
      why don't you go
      up front and scream: "please people i need you to
      SELL!!!!!!, i shorted at $ 199 and i'm scrambling to get out
      or else i lose it ALL!!!!"
      get a life fool, if
      you like history, find out what happens to AMZN
      shorters.
      it will be no different this time, don't kid
      yourself, this is no summer butterfly, it will be here 5
      years from now, you don't want to be short the Wal-Mart
      of the 21st century and the most efficient retailer
      on earth do you?

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