From the grapevine, some funds managers with
sizeable holding in Amazon cut their vacation short to
come back and lock in 50% of the gains in AMZN while
still keeping the window dressing intact.
expect a huge sell off on January.
Longs keep holding
the bag. I think it will be a good reality lesson
that will help you in the long term, I speak from
experience, I was where you are right now. I learned my
lesson the hard way (paper profits turned into a huge
So don't sell, please buy more.
Great post. Amazon can't dissapoint; no
fundamentals, no anticipated earnings, etc. Plenty of
opportunity for hype- X-mas sales  expansion as a
Your projected sideways trading
levels make sense. When it drops there will probably be
no reason. It will just happen. When? Who knows!
First, that $5M should read $50M for market cap.
There are also different rules for initial listing and
continued listing. Now, it's not a problem for amzn, but in
a few months they will have trouble remaining
No, the nasd listing requirements provide for the
'OR' of some different criteria for being listed. One
is a net tangible assets requirement which amzn
doesn't meet. Another is a minimum market cap of $5M,
which amzn does meet.
For amzn to be delisted it
would require their market cap to fall below $5M.
Simply not meeting one of the requirements is not
ufficient for being delisted. I don't have the link
currently available, but if you search on "nasdaq rules",
you should be able to find it.
matter now. I admit, what first attracted me to
AMZN as a short was the weakness of their position (as
an e-tailer) to share in the Internet Gold Rush.
What you fail to understand is the thinking of the
mania investor. Just because AMZN fails every
conceivable valuation measure doesn't mean there will be a
mass exodus by shareholders on Monday.
repeatedly posted during Dec. that these short-term factors
would support and help build the price -- 1. the only
tax-loss opportunities would be for shorts covering, 2.
Longs with gains would probably try to hang on until
'99 to defer gains another year, 3. the short supply
of float & the high volume levels, 4. the impending
split, and 5. X-Mas shopping anticipation. All of these
factors are now disappearing, but will probably mean that
the stock goes more sideways than up or down for the
near-term. You need to find reason(s) (not logic or
valuation) for longs to sell, to get your hoped for
I think it's entirely possible that there may not
be any meaningful downside movement until after the
next EPS report.
Clearly, AMZN's market cap is well over the $5m.
But the idea that its tangible assets are such that
they can or will be delisted is intriguing. However,
note that by issuing even a small quantity of new
stock, they can rapidly increase their assets; that's
what I would do in a hurry were I they.
bet that we'll see such a secondary offering this
Did you ever think about the possibility of so
called "real investors" having their "real investments"
then other money on the side to play
with...ie:options, day trading, or in Sonny's case shorting AMZN??
Go find your discounts, put your money in a good
govt. bond fund and sleep well. I'll be at the
Obviously you're long AMZN and this makes you a
follower or momentum player (same thing), not a real
investor. Please, stay in Vegas, you'll do better in the
The reason I don't care if I lose my
entire investment is because my investment is so large,
and the entertainment value of having a vested
interest in watching AMZN explode is much higher than the
amount I invested. Hence, I win either way. My April 90
puts only cost $1 1/2. I only bought one so it cost me
about $150 bucks. Since I have until April, that comes
out to about $1.30/day to be able to benefit from the
big bust. So I lose $150 if I'm wrong and I make
$5,000 if AMZN hits its true and generous valuation of
I think I'm right. We'll have to wait and
see. But, I bet I sleep much better than the AMZN
longs. Also longs, remember, if this thing gets halted,
it may open up 20%-40% lower, so you won't
necessarily be able to get out if your momentum comes to a
close. Should be fun watching you all get out of this
joker at once. I hate to see people lose money, but I
think it will be a very good lesson for all of you.