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<<Regrarding Barnesandnoble.com's outages?
Could you please refer me to an article about
outages. I wasn't aware of that piece of news until you
just made it up.>>
Sorry to disappoint
you, Dave, but I didn't make anything up. Read the
excerpt at the bottom of the post. My main point was
about eBay, although during holiday season many sites,
including B&N's site had problems. Go back and check
articles on this from Nov-Dec '98. We believe Amazon to be
the most reliable based on their
So you wimped out, Dave, you time-frame-less
market-timer, you? The time frame I want to hear from the likes
of Squid is not about profit, but about the deadline
for their fanstasy of our ultimate demise or arrival
at their notion of "fair value". For example, when
will WMT take over eCommerce, exact date or quarter.
That will give us reason to virtually throw those
posters off of this board. For those who don't "know"
that is okay. I am directing this challenge to all
those however who are "pretending" to "know" the
future, and keep insisting that longs have to have a
fixed target for certain metrics to be met by (I don't
agree). If Squid is going to insist on timeframes (his
little "rule".) He ought to at least start with stating
his (Amazon market cap will be X at X date or
whatever). His reluctance to do so would tend to prove he
either is a hypocrite (insisting on others doing what he
himself is unwilling to do), or he plain just doesn't
know what he is talking about.
No, I maintain
that Q2 is not significant to a long-term investor. I
already know that, if growth is not as large as the most
optimistic analysts estimates, the skeptics will try and
extrapolate that single and isolated number into a "trend" to
mislead others (what a sophomoric scare
Every long knows that Q4 delivers about half of the
year's revenues for most retailers and is the most hotly
contested. By contrast Q2 is less interesting for me. I can
only speak for myself. I do realize for the
short-niks, it is a make or break point, summer in the
markets and all, so I will be looking on more with
amusement, to see the latter, that is, the short-niks being
Why am I less concerned about summer seasonality this
Because as a long-term investors realize that our less
seasonally effected categories such as drugs and pet
supplies, and there may even be others by next summer, and
still more in the summers after that, will greatly
alter the outlook for us. Q2 '99 will tell us very
little, but Q2 2000 & 2001 may begin to show us
something. About Amazon, the General Merchandiser (as
opposed to the bookseller, which in terms of revenues, is
what they will largely be through next month. Barring
of course some upside surprise regarding auctions.
Which the short-niks keep slandering, but which in fact
we really have heard little about.)
I love it
when Amazon is quiet about something, whether a deal
like drugstore.com or Sotheby's, or a revenue figure
like Q1 only showing "some growth, but then surprising
us with more than just "some" growth-- when they're
quiet about these things, and then suddenly whop the
short-niks, like in the Key Stone Cops silents, over the head
with some news at just the right time.
if dell could make profit of its gigabuy site in
4 months according to barron newsletter how could
amzn not make any cents and in fact amzn lost is
widening... is this a sign of a stock becoming a dog..
in the scope of their site.
Dell is not
going into the drug, pet supplies or grocery businesses
The size of those markets are as
be earning 4-6% interest invested in bonds etc.
Of course, some used to invest
in companies like Sotheby's ($45MM announced June 11), exchange.com (which is similar in
some ways to the Sotheby's deal- greatly expanding its access to dealer net works, in a
single investment transaction).
$42.5 cash investment in Homegrocer. $300MN in Alexia
Some deals are for a combination of stock with some cash.
This link to abstracts
covers many of the acquisitions thru
Also a few new distribution centers have been opened, plus a move to a newly leased head