>>He hates traders.<<
they're the ones responsible for the extreme volatility.
You say the swings make you nervous. Well, you're in
part and your type in whole responsible for the very
thing you complain about. No me. I'm not jumping in and
out like a jitter bug, you are. You're making the
I don't hate traders at all. House is a trader. I
>>He is offended by people
cashing in for profits.<<
No, but by your
propaganda to preach market timing gambling with no research
(your ignorance about IBM and INKT and many issues
about AMZN the company amply demonstrate
>>Sounds to me like he wont sell, no
No, I'll sell someday (I consider this time of year
the absolutely worst time to sell in terms of the
risk of missing an upside) when I'm ready. But on my
own terms, not yours, not the shorts' either. Not by
setting stops for a loss. Not by setting any stops at
all. And not on the way down or the bottom of a
correction as so many of you on this board hype.
stock prices of good companys recover and I think
Amazon is a good company. As "change" says, no company
is bullet proof. Profits or no. Look at IBM. But
also Oracle, Dell. Compaq.
leading some other people in here to that same
conclusion. For thier sake I hope he
How about the conclusion for the guys you told to buy
IBM. TWICE! And who you told to use STOPS. And who
stopped out at 90 for a whopping 20% loss. What kind of
conclusion is that?
Amazon is not GE. There is much
more risk. Also much more reward to be had.
can do what you want to do as far as gambling and
But when you speak out to others and preach market
timing gambling agressively telling them what to do or
when you manipulate the facts in order to bolster your
gambling fever, I'll be there to add balance to the
discussion and to dispute your shallow thinking ("hey,
folks, it's gone down enough, it's gone up enough, blah,
You keep bragging about your
That has nothing to do with the
guys "you stopped out of IBM" for big losses. They
don't own the same portfolio you do. They may not have
lots of GE. You're very selfish to think that your
successes make it all okay.
Kinda like the killer
who says "yeah, but tomorrow I'll help this little
ole lady across the street and make everything okay."
Nem is a "bad guy" or anything of the sort. I was
merely pointing out that 17 years of a bull market with
quick recoveries from all downdrafts would quite
logically predispose one to the viewpoint that LTBH is
superior. Some of my other comments were an attempt to give
others insight as to the thought process of someone with
a shorter-term focus and their reasons for adopting
that viewpoint. Furthermore, I wanted to illustrate
that "winning" isn't about being right. By their
behavior I can only assume that LTBHs gain additional
satisfaction from having their "vision" validated in addition
to the money they make. A trader is happy enough
with the profits.
This is OT but I view no
company as "bulletproof". KO could be and was placed in
that category until the last 18-24 months. At its
recent 52 week low the stock was off almost 50% from its
highs. Despite their recent problems the company still
is making almost $800M per quarter. No doubt one day
it will be back. The questions are how long will one
have to wait and will all holders be able to hold?
Based on what I've seen from your posts you are someone
who could easily ride out a prolonged downturn and
even add to your position. I doubt this is true of
most. On the contrary, a prolonged downturn would force
people out creating the bargains that those with more
staying power can acquire.
Nem is not a bad guy and on here it is important
for us all to share our ideas and listen to those
that are different from ours.
I agree with
NEM's strategy (or lack of one) to hold long term on
some issues. Those issues have some major strengths
and are "bulletproof" if you will. The most
volitality you will ever see on the down side is probably 10
to 20%. Those issues include well capitalized,
profitable ones like GE, GM, MSFT, CMB, OAT, and about 10 to
AMZN is not in that category.
Virtually no net or tech company is. The volitality is too
risky and as such you have to manage your risk with
trades and hedges.
I respect NEM for his loyalty
to AMZN, I find myself torn on AMZN sometimes from a
loyalty standpoint. I have made so much money in it, long
90% of the time. But ever since I have 3 weeks ago or
so started that I felt is fully valued and stop
losses should be taken (thouse people would have stopped
out between $ 84 and $ 88), and I went short for a
while, NEM has been unmerciful with me and trading.
Adding fuel to his irrational fire were two IBM bad
positions that I took. He has failed to even acknowledge so
many positive and profitable positions I took (and
announced before the fact) that its laughable.
hates traders. He is offended by people cashing in for
profits. Sounds to me like he wont sell, no matter what.
He is leading some other people in here to that same
conclusion. For thier sake I hope he is right. If he is we
will all make money also, some of us have hedged and
others of us will close the bad positions and take new
ones. If however NEM is wrong, or when AMZN starts to
get hammered for continued losses and slowing growth,
watch out. I have tried to have civil discourse with
him on hedging positions and trading down and
levering a position.
I have different strategies
for core holdings and trading issues. AMZN for me is
a trading issue, and will probably be for the
I guess in NEM's mind AMZN to him
is like GE is to me. I have never sold a share of GE
stock in 12 years. I have been accumulating it and will
continue to do so. I have no stop there, and don't ever
worry about it.
America is a great country...
people like NEM and I can be so different in our
thinking on this issue and probably both make alot of
money, the question is who will hold onto it? In this
issue with its speculative nature and volitality I know
that I would be uncomfortable holding AMZN on
Take care and happy trading.
"friendly banter" with Nem for some time now and
would like to weigh in with some, hopefully,
Those who are convinced of
the superiority of the long-term approach will never
understand the trading mentality given the current
environment. Had this forum been available in, say, 1978, you
would find the LTBH crowd to be the minority and likely
an object of derision and scorn.
difference between traders and long-term advocates is the
amount of time each is willing to wait before saying
"I'm wrong". The long-term approach gives one more
time to be right but is more devastating if one turns
out to be wrong as both and opportunity and a
significant period of time have been wasted that can never be
recovered. The idea of waiting years to find out one is
wrong or riding something down when one's money could
be employed elsewhere or on the short side is
anathema to the trading mindset. Another aspect of trading
that the long-term crowd does not appreciate is that a
trader does not mind being wrong, even a majority of the
time, as long as he/she makes money.
LTBH is a
great strategy as long as one is correct about the
underlying trend and can truly afford to wait out the down
cycles and dollar-cost average. Very few really can, but
we have not encountered a severe down cycle for some
time. It is interesting to me that the bull marhet had
to be under way for 10+ years before the majority of
the public became true believers in
Trading works because few people have the mental makeup
to succeed in it. It is not about "systems". It is
about self-control and the ability to act contrary to
basic human instincts that have been developed over
thousands of years. For example, to succeed in trading one
often has to buy strength and sell weakness. Having
traded myself (futures) I know how very difficult this
is to do. A mediocre system will make money as long
as risk management is applied without fail. One
"blowup" can wipe out months of good trading. It is for
this reason that trading works only for a limited few.
Were everyone able to do it the game would be over.
Given human nature, however, it will likely always be a
successful source of revenue for the fortunate few that can
overcome their instincts, opinions and ego.
I have traded I am more of a big picture type. What
I am seeing in underlying trends leads me to
believe that the day is rapidly approaching where a true
understanding of "where you are coming from" will be forced
upon those who now question or criticize your
on another subject - have you seen new ads for
micronpc.com? They aired during world series last
night...pretty bizarre. This company is attempting to re-invent
itself with "subscription computing". Appears they no
longer want to languish in the role of #3 PC maker with
no hope of competing with the big boys. They will
now bundle hardware, e-commerce, web hosting,
technical services, etc for a fixed monthly "subscription"
If this campaign flops, MUEI is finished.
On the other hand, if successful, MUEI could return
to previous levels in the $25 range.
That is the million dollar question.
any of us knew, we would be loading up long or
I think the loss amount will only tell part of the
story. Remember AMZN has no earnings never has and wont
for at least 2 years. The other part of the story and
its probably as critical as the loss are the customer
numbers, sales averages, margin %, Marketing and
Administrative costs, etc. Those all are an indication of growth
In my opinion this is not a time to be adding to a
long position nor taking a new long position. If you
are going to play long before earnings buying calls
will be a better play (November or December $ 75, $
80, $ 85, or $ 90's are the most sensible) as this
will limit your risk on the downside but allow you to
participate in the upside if there is any. Shorting in the $
70's might not be smart either. This issue could go to
$ 90's or above easily if the report is good. I do
not expect that but it could. If you think the report
is going to be bad, you will be better off buying
puts (November or December $ 70. $ 75, $ 80, or $
85's) depending on your risk tolerance and amount of
capital you want to invest.
I am neutral for with
AMZN I do like the company and want it to do well (but
I feel strongly that they have to start making a
turn of the corner towards profits). I have some puts
at present (November $ 80's) which I hedged off a
long positon when it dropped to the $ 73 1/2 range. I
closed the long at $ 81 and made enough money to put a
nice profit away and have the puts for
I'm looking to do that again prior to Wednesday, if
the issue gets to the $ 75 range...buy some long with
the profits in my pocket.. that way either way up I
make money or down I make money.
America is a
Be careful in AMZN this week,
longs and shorts. Make your own decisions and you
should always have a strategy for when you want out and
when you want to add to the position. If not flying
blindly long or short will surely at some time in AMZN
come back and haunt you. Its just my opinion.