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  • goldsmith99 goldsmith99 Oct 20, 1999 11:57 PM Flag

    October 24th??

    Anyone here know the significance of this date to amzn?
    Is there an annoucement or something you've been waiting for that would make amzn move?

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    • >>He hates traders.<<

      they're the ones responsible for the extreme volatility.
      You say the swings make you nervous. Well, you're in
      part and your type in whole responsible for the very
      thing you complain about. No me. I'm not jumping in and
      out like a jitter bug, you are. You're making the

      I don't hate traders at all. House is a trader. I
      like him.

      >>He is offended by people
      cashing in for profits.<<

      No, but by your
      propaganda to preach market timing gambling with no research
      (your ignorance about IBM and INKT and many issues
      about AMZN the company amply demonstrate

      >>Sounds to me like he wont sell, no

      No, I'll sell someday (I consider this time of year
      the absolutely worst time to sell in terms of the
      risk of missing an upside) when I'm ready. But on my
      own terms, not yours, not the shorts' either. Not by
      setting stops for a loss. Not by setting any stops at
      all. And not on the way down or the bottom of a
      correction as so many of you on this board hype.

      stock prices of good companys recover and I think
      Amazon is a good company. As "change" says, no company
      is bullet proof. Profits or no. Look at IBM. But
      also Oracle, Dell. Compaq.

      >>He is
      leading some other people in here to that same
      conclusion. For thier sake I hope he

      How about the conclusion for the guys you told to buy
      IBM. TWICE! And who you told to use STOPS. And who
      stopped out at 90 for a whopping 20% loss. What kind of
      conclusion is that?

      Amazon is not GE. There is much
      more risk. Also much more reward to be had.

      can do what you want to do as far as gambling and

      But when you speak out to others and preach market
      timing gambling agressively telling them what to do or
      when you manipulate the facts in order to bolster your
      gambling fever, I'll be there to add balance to the
      discussion and to dispute your shallow thinking ("hey,
      folks, it's gone down enough, it's gone up enough, blah,
      blah, blah).

      You keep bragging about your
      "successful" trades.

      That has nothing to do with the
      guys "you stopped out of IBM" for big losses. They
      don't own the same portfolio you do. They may not have
      lots of GE. You're very selfish to think that your
      successes make it all okay.

      Kinda like the killer
      who says "yeah, but tomorrow I'll help this little
      ole lady across the street and make everything okay."

    • Nem is a "bad guy" or anything of the sort. I was
      merely pointing out that 17 years of a bull market with
      quick recoveries from all downdrafts would quite
      logically predispose one to the viewpoint that LTBH is
      superior. Some of my other comments were an attempt to give
      others insight as to the thought process of someone with
      a shorter-term focus and their reasons for adopting
      that viewpoint. Furthermore, I wanted to illustrate
      that "winning" isn't about being right. By their
      behavior I can only assume that LTBHs gain additional
      satisfaction from having their "vision" validated in addition
      to the money they make. A trader is happy enough
      with the profits.

      This is OT but I view no
      company as "bulletproof". KO could be and was placed in
      that category until the last 18-24 months. At its
      recent 52 week low the stock was off almost 50% from its
      highs. Despite their recent problems the company still
      is making almost $800M per quarter. No doubt one day
      it will be back. The questions are how long will one
      have to wait and will all holders be able to hold?
      Based on what I've seen from your posts you are someone
      who could easily ride out a prolonged downturn and
      even add to your position. I doubt this is true of
      most. On the contrary, a prolonged downturn would force
      people out creating the bargains that those with more
      staying power can acquire.

    • Nem is not a bad guy and on here it is important
      for us all to share our ideas and listen to those
      that are different from ours.

      I agree with
      NEM's strategy (or lack of one) to hold long term on
      some issues. Those issues have some major strengths
      and are "bulletproof" if you will. The most
      volitality you will ever see on the down side is probably 10
      to 20%. Those issues include well capitalized,
      profitable ones like GE, GM, MSFT, CMB, OAT, and about 10 to
      12 others.

      AMZN is not in that category.
      Virtually no net or tech company is. The volitality is too
      risky and as such you have to manage your risk with
      trades and hedges.

      I respect NEM for his loyalty
      to AMZN, I find myself torn on AMZN sometimes from a
      loyalty standpoint. I have made so much money in it, long
      90% of the time. But ever since I have 3 weeks ago or
      so started that I felt is fully valued and stop
      losses should be taken (thouse people would have stopped
      out between $ 84 and $ 88), and I went short for a
      while, NEM has been unmerciful with me and trading.
      Adding fuel to his irrational fire were two IBM bad
      positions that I took. He has failed to even acknowledge so
      many positive and profitable positions I took (and
      announced before the fact) that its laughable.

      hates traders. He is offended by people cashing in for
      profits. Sounds to me like he wont sell, no matter what.
      He is leading some other people in here to that same
      conclusion. For thier sake I hope he is right. If he is we
      will all make money also, some of us have hedged and
      others of us will close the bad positions and take new
      ones. If however NEM is wrong, or when AMZN starts to
      get hammered for continued losses and slowing growth,
      watch out. I have tried to have civil discourse with
      him on hedging positions and trading down and
      levering a position.

      I have different strategies
      for core holdings and trading issues. AMZN for me is
      a trading issue, and will probably be for the
      foreseeable future.

      I guess in NEM's mind AMZN to him
      is like GE is to me. I have never sold a share of GE
      stock in 12 years. I have been accumulating it and will
      continue to do so. I have no stop there, and don't ever
      worry about it.

      America is a great country...
      people like NEM and I can be so different in our
      thinking on this issue and probably both make alot of
      money, the question is who will hold onto it? In this
      issue with its speculative nature and volitality I know
      that I would be uncomfortable holding AMZN on

      Take care and happy trading.

    • Real Tick III? IF so can you see if it is working properly, right now I can't log in. Thanks. .

    • "friendly banter" with Nem for some time now and
      would like to weigh in with some, hopefully,
      inoffensive observations.

      Those who are convinced of
      the superiority of the long-term approach will never
      understand the trading mentality given the current
      environment. Had this forum been available in, say, 1978, you
      would find the LTBH crowd to be the minority and likely
      an object of derision and scorn.

      The primary
      difference between traders and long-term advocates is the
      amount of time each is willing to wait before saying
      "I'm wrong". The long-term approach gives one more
      time to be right but is more devastating if one turns
      out to be wrong as both and opportunity and a
      significant period of time have been wasted that can never be
      recovered. The idea of waiting years to find out one is
      wrong or riding something down when one's money could
      be employed elsewhere or on the short side is
      anathema to the trading mindset. Another aspect of trading
      that the long-term crowd does not appreciate is that a
      trader does not mind being wrong, even a majority of the
      time, as long as he/she makes money.

      LTBH is a
      great strategy as long as one is correct about the
      underlying trend and can truly afford to wait out the down
      cycles and dollar-cost average. Very few really can, but
      we have not encountered a severe down cycle for some
      time. It is interesting to me that the bull marhet had
      to be under way for 10+ years before the majority of
      the public became true believers in

      Trading works because few people have the mental makeup
      to succeed in it. It is not about "systems". It is
      about self-control and the ability to act contrary to
      basic human instincts that have been developed over
      thousands of years. For example, to succeed in trading one
      often has to buy strength and sell weakness. Having
      traded myself (futures) I know how very difficult this
      is to do. A mediocre system will make money as long
      as risk management is applied without fail. One
      "blowup" can wipe out months of good trading. It is for
      this reason that trading works only for a limited few.
      Were everyone able to do it the game would be over.
      Given human nature, however, it will likely always be a
      successful source of revenue for the fortunate few that can
      overcome their instincts, opinions and ego.

      I have traded I am more of a big picture type. What
      I am seeing in underlying trends leads me to
      believe that the day is rapidly approaching where a true
      understanding of "where you are coming from" will be forced
      upon those who now question or criticize your

    • it was a good read . I wonder why they pulled it?

    • on another subject - have you seen new ads for They aired during world series last
      night...pretty bizarre. This company is attempting to re-invent
      itself with "subscription computing". Appears they no
      longer want to languish in the role of #3 PC maker with
      no hope of competing with the big boys. They will
      now bundle hardware, e-commerce, web hosting,
      technical services, etc for a fixed monthly "subscription"

      If this campaign flops, MUEI is finished.
      On the other hand, if successful, MUEI could return
      to previous levels in the $25 range.

    • why the HUGE amount of insider filings??

      any ideas guys??

    • That is the million dollar question.

      any of us knew, we would be loading up long or

      I think the loss amount will only tell part of the
      story. Remember AMZN has no earnings never has and wont
      for at least 2 years. The other part of the story and
      its probably as critical as the loss are the customer
      numbers, sales averages, margin %, Marketing and
      Administrative costs, etc. Those all are an indication of growth

      In my opinion this is not a time to be adding to a
      long position nor taking a new long position. If you
      are going to play long before earnings buying calls
      will be a better play (November or December $ 75, $
      80, $ 85, or $ 90's are the most sensible) as this
      will limit your risk on the downside but allow you to
      participate in the upside if there is any. Shorting in the $
      70's might not be smart either. This issue could go to
      $ 90's or above easily if the report is good. I do
      not expect that but it could. If you think the report
      is going to be bad, you will be better off buying
      puts (November or December $ 70. $ 75, $ 80, or $
      85's) depending on your risk tolerance and amount of
      capital you want to invest.

      I am neutral for with
      AMZN I do like the company and want it to do well (but
      I feel strongly that they have to start making a
      turn of the corner towards profits). I have some puts
      at present (November $ 80's) which I hedged off a
      long positon when it dropped to the $ 73 1/2 range. I
      closed the long at $ 81 and made enough money to put a
      nice profit away and have the puts for

      I'm looking to do that again prior to Wednesday, if
      the issue gets to the $ 75 some long with
      the profits in my pocket.. that way either way up I
      make money or down I make money.

      America is a
      great country.

      Be careful in AMZN this week,
      longs and shorts. Make your own decisions and you
      should always have a strategy for when you want out and
      when you want to add to the position. If not flying
      blindly long or short will surely at some time in AMZN
      come back and haunt you. Its just my opinion.

    • What do you see in store for AMZN this week? Is the party over (for now)?

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