Watch these stocks run today ladys and gentlemen.
It'd e-tailing day and AMZN is the king. Could open @
84 and go to 86. Maybe higher if there is news. TEch
confer and AMZN will hype today.
Have fun longs
and to bad shorts
The estimates I have access to suggest ebay is on
a forward p/e of about 400....obviously they are
only estimates... but ebay does make a profit, they do
have barriers to entry ( amzn can't get critical masss
for its auctions) and although the valuation is
ludicrous for a 50% a year grower over the next 5 years,
the explosion in earnings over the next 12 months
does justify a valuation of something like half where
ebay actually tades right now.
I'm not manic/depresive! I'm just very, very
happy when Jenncom speaks to me, and a little sad when
she doesn't, OK maybe a little debilitated, OK<OK
so I had to trade keyboards because I flooded the
other one, but that doesn't make me manic/depresive!
Seriously, I've been a student of Mr. Market for over a
quarter century, and have to agree with everything you
said. I gave my copy of 'The Intelligent Investor' to
cent net of charges. However, like your favorite
company, it operates at a loss, although not so deep of
one. Their income comes from bonds where they invested
the proceeds from the
Unfortunately, the 15,000 p/e is an error, unless I'm wrong in
believing that one uses annual "earnings" to calculate it.
Their trailing earnings are 6 cents a year, so the p/e
works out to a "mere" 2500.
It will be
interesting to see what happens in the morning. If I heard
the reporting correctly, about 125,000 shares traded
after hours, reaching a low of 139.25, but recoveing to
about 145 by the end of trading. If we had a more
liquid market, this stock would be in even worse
I noticed your post regarding my
"prediction" of a market crash. Do you remember? I, for one,
have never predicted market behavior. I dont know
where you getting this notion.
Ben Graham? You
think he is outdated? Well funny that you mention
market behavior and him in the same post. Well Graham
once referred to the MARKET as "Mr. Market" and
likened him to a manic depressive. Loosely quoting from
Graham, "Mr. Market is very fickle...he tells what he
think youre worth everyday...you do not like
this?....well Mr. Market doesnt care because everyday it can
My point? Well this simple analogy speaks
volume about Graham's post 1929 investing attitude and
provides a great lesson. Since the market is so sporadic
then market predictions are pointless. Needless to say
I do not predict but merely remind others.
You also said that Graham type of thinking is
pointless in this overvalued market. Oh I dont think so!
Read the quote again and you will see, with some
insight, that it still holds true today.
everytime you flipped on your trusty CNBC, pure
entertainment in my opinion, you can thank the "outdated" Mr.
Graham. For every so-called "industry,sector expert or
analyst" is the creation of Mr. Graham. Although from
reading Graham I find it hard to believe he would approve
of so many and the facts they leave out. You see Mr
Graham is the original security analyst. He was the
first and was appropriately dubbed "Dean of Wall
Street" by his colleagues. SS if you research Graham and
his many accomplishments (like the fact he was able
to return 12% annually before, during and after the
1929 crash) you will find the above as facts. He made
security analysis as possible as an exact
Also what Graham leaves us, which is more than the
Motley Fools will ever leave behind, is a series of how
to view a company. A rational that compares it to
buying a local store. This is essientally what the stock
market is and will always be. I remember discussing this
with a trader that was puffing a cigar on wall street
once outside of the NYSE. He looked at me oddly than
One other point that you made with
regards to Graham and the 1990s. Well if the truth be
known the higher amounts, which you are obviously
referring to, only occurred in the past few years. Gone are
the years of the 20% (basic average and yes I know
about the 80+% returns as well). On average over the
PAST FEW years the market has done about 20%. Look now
at what is happening. First study year to year
average returns then factor in this decade. The market
will return to such averages as 12% or so. Then
everybody, who havent studied up, will say, "what
Oh yeah my age? Well yes I am 25 and have
been invested since the age of 16. My current wealth
is more than my salary, as a security analyst,
currently. Yes the conversation outlined in the 6th
paragraph did take place.
To conclude, some here,
not necessarily you, seem to think that a crystal
ball exist. That there is some mystery behind Wall
Street. Last time I was there, about 4 months ago, it
wasnt a mystery to me. In fact it still just a paved
street that sits near the Staten Island ferry and is
located in lower Manhattan. I hope you dont think this
babbling of silliness of Graham and the market isnt an
attempt to be pompous.
Best of luck in your
AMZN's trading desk opens for business on
Thursday, and a lot of sellers line up, and no buyers show
It WILL happen. Get out tomorrow, or
you'll feel stupider than Ebay longs will feel tomorrow