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  • (Sorry! I hit the send key too soon)

    I own
    more SPIR (at higher prices) than I want to talk
    about, so I'm aware of the negatives. They
    are:

    1. Very little institutional following.
    2. High
    dependence on government initiatives to get serious

    about renewable energy. (GOP congress not friendly.
    See
    msg 83 by solarfanatic.)
    3. A management team
    that does not appear completely committed
    to
    shareholders.
    4. Eratic sales and earnings. Very little recent
    growth here.

    But, if you believe in value and
    have the patience, like I hope
    I do, the long term
    rewards (3+ years) could be very nice. (I'm
    in it for
    the long run because of the value and because I like

    I like the renewable energy story.) Hope I'm not
    disappointed.

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    • Spire equipment is not at all cost effective for
      a small business. Their semi-automatic PV assembly
      line costs around $500k. The major PV market is
      developing nations. Add another 250K for shipping and import
      duties and you endup around 700-750K
      Production
      capacity for this assembly line is around 100KW -
      200KW/year. at this rate the cost of a PV module will be
      around $4-$7.5 /W. keep in mind this is just the
      equipment cost. Currently most available PV modules cost
      around $5/watt finished. So I don't find any logic why
      any small business in developing contries would want
      to buy the equipment from Spire. Or is spire
      neglecting international market. Well time will tell. Only
      if they can sell their manufacturing equipments at
      resonable rates.

      • 1 Reply to rajuta
      • of course I have made a very wrong assumption of
        covering the investment in one year. But think about it
        this way-
        750K machine cost
        250K setup including
        land and builtup cost.
        10% interest
        rate
        $2.5/watt production cost

        $5 - current market
        price/watt
        $5-$2.5 for recovering initial cost and
        profits.

        So you have a investment of 1M @10%
        and recovery
        of initial investment @2.5/watt

        Assume 1st
        year output around 75KW
        recovery for 1st year :-
        187500
        interest assuming simple :- 100000
        Initial
        investment recovered :- 87500

        Assuming average
        15KW/year increase in output over next 5 years
        It takes
        around 5 1/2 to 6 years to recover the initial
        investment. Normally the recovery period is 3-5 years. Also
        we are assuming simple interest and that the labou
        cost and raw material cost remains same and that there
        is no inventory cost. Inventory cost ofcourse is
        biggest cost in manufacturing industry. What i am getting
        at is assuming favorable conditions it takes 6 years
        to recover which is not acceptable in todays world.

 
SPIR
0.140.0000(0.00%)Jun 30 2:27 PMEDT