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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Jun 28, 2010 8:20 AM Flag

    LINE Chart Evaluation & Sell Mention

    LINE - Friday closing price 26.11

    LINE has now successfully tested the 32-month weekly closing high, made the second week of January at 28.25, 3 times with high weekly closes at 27.23, 27.10, and the close 2 weeks ago at 26.19. In addition, the stock generated a negative reversal week last week with higher highs, lower lows, and a close in the red, suggesting that further upside will now be difficult to accomplish.

    The stock has shown some technical strength due to the failure to follow through to the downside signal given 4 weeks ago. Nonetheless, that strength might have expired last week with a red close on the weekly chart, the first in the last 6 weeks.

    On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor at 26.17, decent at 27.10 and again at 27.23. Strong resistance is found at 28.15. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent at 26.46 and strong at 27.18. Above that level, strong resistance is found at 27.75 and major at 28.80. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent to strong between 24.80 and 25.17. Below that level, minor support from the 200-week MA is found at 24.40 and strong support at 23.00. Below that level there is no support until the 100-week MA, currently at 20.60 is reached. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 25.79 and then decent to strong between 24.80 and 25.00. Below that level support is decent at 23.69 and strong at 22.69.

    LINE closed an open gap between 26.65 and 25.74 last Monday but has unable to follow through to the upside.

    LINE now shows an open gap below between 22.74 and 23.10 that will begin to work as a magnet if the recent high at 26.67 is not broken. By the same token, the stock is at price levels that are attractive to sell with very low and clearly defined risk/reward ratios as well as a decent to good probability rating.

    On the downside, the stock saw 21.42 just 6 weeks ago and that low has not yet been tested successfully. As such, if the stock starts showing some weakness this week and the 200-day MA is broken, drops down to at least 22.40 are likely to be seen.

    Sales of LINE between Friday's closing price at 26.11 and 26.50 and using a stop loss at 26.79 and having an objective of 22.40, offers a risk/reward ratio of 5-1.

    My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

    My name is Tony and I am a chartist. I have been trading for close to 30 years. In the 80's I was a broker/trader/analyst for Merrill Lynch, Dean Witter, and Pru-Bache.

    I offer an inexpensive chart evaluation service on stocks of your choice through membership to my newsletter and message board.

    “When or where do I get in? When or where do I get out? What is the trend for the next week? For the next 3 months? Where are the strong buyers and where are the strong sellers (based on past action)? What is the risk/reward ratio on my trade (based on chart objectives)? What looks good right now (chart-wise)?”

    These are some of the questions that I try to answer through chart evaluation.

    I offer a monthly service that includes a weekly newsletter with chart evaluations on 4 stocks that I believe have attractive chart patterns and good risk/reward ratios as well as 1 chart evaluation per week on a stock of your choice. Evaluations include entry and stop loss points as well as likely objectives. The service also includes membership to a message board where daily updates on all stocks and stock indexes are given. Cost of the service is only $27.95 per month. A 2-week Free Trial is offered. If you want a lesser package, I do offer one for $4.95 that only talks about the Stock Indexes.

    If you are interested in learning more about the service, click on my nick and get the website address from the profile area.

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    • I get stopped out often. That is because I always risk very little on the trade. As I mentioned before, when I am right my profits are great, when I am wrong my losses are small.

      Below are the results for April. If I wanted to impress you I would show you the results for May as that was the best month I have had in the last 7 years. Nonetheless, I am showing you April's results because I had a lot of losses in April. In fact I had the worst month, percentage wise, of the last 3 years and still made money. It will illustrate that even when I have a very bad month, my trading approach works.

      Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
      Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
      Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

      Status of account for 2010, as of 3/31

      Profit of $2229 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

      Closed out profitable trades for April per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

      RIMM (short) $277
      QCOM (short) $1082
      VALE (short) $107
      RIMM (short) $303
      AMZN (short) $965
      RIMM (long) $521
      AMZN (short) $588
      Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close.

      KO (short) $108

      Total Profit for April, per 100 shares and after commissions $3951

      Closed out losing trades for April per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

      CAL (short) $57
      MS (short) $109
      TRLG (short) $156
      AIPC (short) $149
      AMZN (short) $4
      RIMM (short) $39
      GPS (short) $285
      BA (long) $3
      SKX (short) $379
      NUAN (short) $54
      AMZN (long) $47
      RIMM (short) $38
      Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

      OSK (short) $265
      QQQQ (short) $70
      CAL (short) $143
      AKS (short) $165
      YGE (short) $69
      TRLG (short) $216
      MS (short) $169
      HON (short $82

      Total Loss for April, per 100 shares, including commissions $2499

      Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 4/30

      GPS (short) $91
      SKX (short) $289
      MS (short) $118
      CAL (short) $104
      RIMM (short $302
      Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

      None $0

      Total $918

      Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 4/30

      COO (short) $48
      Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

      WMT (long) $784
      GIGM (long) $13

      Total $845

      Status of trades for month of April per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

      Profit of $1525

      Status of account/portfolio for 2010, as of 4/30
      Profit of $3754 using 100 shares traded per mention.

      By the way, as a comparison, last month I showed a profit of $9750 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. My batting average last month was the best in 7 years at 82% of the trades were profitable.

    • jackhiller Jun 28, 2010 9:18 AM Flag

      My name is Jack, and I offer no advice I would charge for after I retired as a scientist.

      I have been investing for 40 years, and have found that backward looking Technical analysis is very useful when the World is in a static phase, and industry groups of companies (sectors) are in a static phase, so that a stock will trade in a fixed trading range -- thus permitting buying low and selling high and shorting high and buying low.

      However, such trading worked well in the 70s, when research reports took months to generate, and were snail mailed to a few high paying clients. However, that comfortable siren world of trading grew old and died as discount trading charges encouraged day trading, PCs gained power to rapidly analyze current behavior, and the internet speeded news to the masses with delivery in seconds and less.

      The mindless regurgitation of rapidly aging technical analysis of data for past behavior is helpless and uninformed as unpredictable world events and/or real company news drive changes in the markets, industry sectors, and individual companies (I said mindless, because the recent low reported for Line occurred when the market suddenly collapsed a few weeks ago, and all of those clever Stop Loss Orders were triggered by -- Whatever, and sensing that the market was engaged in a nonlinear dynamic feedback loop [a form of technical analysis that did not exist when the Technical Analysis community formulated its classic analyses and strategies]a few brave folks were able to buy at the temporary irrational lows).

      The O&G exploration and development sector is particuly sensitive to world news, and to the successes (failures) of individual companies in their exploration of properties. Formal Technical analysis thus loses its power as rerl events change the operating conditions and value of O&G companies.

      • 2 Replies to jackhiller
      • Per my newsletter mention I shorted LINE today at 26.30. My stop loss is at 26.79 and my objective is a drop down to at least 22.40. I am risking $49 to pick up $387. It is a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.

        By the way, 95% of my stop losses are mental as there is always the possibility of traders going for stop losses and as they are hit they turn around and go the opposite way. As such, I use a 15 minute time frame after my stop loss is hit to see if that is what is happening or the break of support/resistance is for real. I sometimes give up a bit more of a loss, but in a 15 minute period of time it usually isn't much. On the other side of the coin, it does prevent me from taking losses during those periods of time when it was just trader manipulation that caused the break. In a stock such as LINE where the volume is not into millions of shares, this fail safe I use, works particularly well.

      • You sound like an intelligent person but one that knows little of trading the market. I understand your reasoning but one thing that will NEVER change in life is fear and greed.

        You may not know this, but 70% of all trading done in a day is technical in nature. It is done by traders that are not interested in news but in trading the stock from point A to point B and making a profit. Since news does not come out daily, their trading is all done by charts that show where support and resistance levels are.

        Yes, news does trump charts every time, but that is only a few times a year. The rest of the year these big professional traders are trying to make money each and every day (greed) and they have to use "previous" areas where buying and selling occured to they can have a "road map" to where to buy, where to sell, and where to say they are on the wrong side.

        Chart trading does have its pitfalls but "more often than not" those pitfalls are not triggered and during that period of time money is made "consistently". Chart trading works if you get involved with risk/reward ratios of at least 4-1 "based on the charts and not on money", diversification into 8-10 stocks so you never have more than 15% of your portfolio into any "one" stock. With this simply formula, I can be wrong as much as 80% of the time and still turn a profit.

        I have been trading this way for the last 7 years and have not yet had a losing year. My track record for the last 7 years is 47.5% being correct. Nonetheless, my profits "always" are higher than my losses ($83 versus $187 after commissions are taken out), and therefore I make money consistently.

        I know exactly what goes on in the minds of the professional traders as I was one of them back in the 80's. I know what they use and what they look for and that is never going to change because their objective is always based on greed.

        By the way, to address your point about the recent drop in LINE that "triggered all those stop loss orders", I will say that those things will happen, but when you are trading 10 different stocks and one of the stocks goes against you, the other 9 stocks may be going for you and therefore there is no loss or the loss is minimized. In addition, often those events can go in your favor as well as against you, so it all comes out in the wash.

        Anyhow, I know you are totally wrong (just a lack of knowledge) because I have been doing it successfully for 7 years and doing it well for that long a time is no longer called "luck", it is called a good intelligent trading sytem based on knowledge of support/resistance levels.

0.180.00(0.00%)May 23 3:59 PMEDT