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Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) Message Board

  • sandonthebeach47 sandonthebeach47 Nov 16, 2012 9:11 AM Flag

    The shift to oilier plays from which gas plays?

    While there were some bargains, there was/is a shift from some shale gas areas to other oil shale plays.

    Many oil and gas companies have moved in & or expanded into the Bakken and other oilier plays.

    One good example is that LINE shifted all of the 2012 granite was development to the Hogshooter oil zone.

    Where will it shift next?
    So this (cut from an article) looked interesting:

    "It appears to be more and more a never ending ‘Drilling to exhaustion’ rather than an acclaimed ‘Shale gas miracle’. Offsetting claims of “hyperbolic” production, read as long term 30 and 40 year per well lifetimes, by the industry remain to date unproven as do much of what is being claimed as recoverable reserves.

    Is Pennsylvania’s Marcellus shale formation immune from such rapid per well aggressive depletion rates now experienced in every other U.S. shale gas formation? Will Pennsylvania’s Marcellus not see perhaps 30% to 45% or more annual decline rates in the next few years such as now being seen in Texas and Louisiana? Given the Marcellus' deeper drilling depths along with mountains and hills which make trucking all of heavy equipment required for drilling so diesel fuel intensive somehow going to result in lower extraction costs here than in the flat and open plains of Texas?

    Do such rapid per well aggressive depletion rates explain the intense pressure by the industry to open up drilling in nearby New York State as soon as possible? Bradford and Susquehanna counties in Pennsylvania, both sweet spots for the industry would be short drives to deliver drilling equipment from Pennsylvania and into New York State.

    Time will tell given the increasingly difficult operating environments of today’s energy realities.

    Disclaimer: The writer holds no U.S. securities in any shale gas company nor is he a member of any environmental group or anti-fracking group. He holds no financial arrangements with any of the entities and/or individuals listed in the article. He is not being paid to write by any shale gas industry group, pro or con.

    To see the latest EIA report on Marcellus shale gas production, go to: "
    (the link would not post... but you can find it at the EIA)

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    • Sand uses an article using material from Arthur Berman.

      I guess he knows who Berman is, and supports his positions.

      Like this from an interview in oilprice from just this past Monday:

      1.) Shale gas is a commercial failure
      2.) The decline rates are incredibly high. In the Eagleford shale, which is supposed to be the mother of all shale oil plays, the annual decline rate is higher than 42%. (I guess he has never seen the Bakken decline rate)
      3.) They're going to have to drill hundreds, almost 1000 wells in the Eagleford shale, every year, to keep production flat (again, I guess he's never heard of Bakken)
      4.) Mitt Romney, particularly, talked about how the United States would be able to achieve energy independence in five years. Well, that's garbage. Anybody who knows anything about oil, gas and coal, knows that that's absurd. We were producing a little over 6 million barrels a day thanks to an all-out effort in the shale oil play. We consume 15 million barrels of oil a day and that leaves the gap of 9 million barrels per day. At the peak of U.S. production, in 1970, the U.S. produced 10.6 million barrels per day. Like I said, either the guy doesn't know what he's talking about, or is making a big joke of it.

      Berman is a major proponent of peak oil. He is director of The Association for the Study of Peak Oil.
      Just google his name and you can find all kinds of articles by him in various anti-fossil fuel publications.

      Norris, are you aware that Sand is a follower and advocate of this guy?

      • 1 Reply to rlp2451
      • Who is that guy you went on and on about?

        And, all of that nonsense of being a follower is the kind of nonsence we all expect from you....just make up lots of things, claim it is so, & hope that someone believes you. ...The old familiar RLP-shuffle.

        I just noticed an article that looked interesting and you twisted into being some a follower...LOL

        Now,

        Try this guy/short video and maybe you can make up another fantasy.

        20 hrs ago, WTAE - Pittsburgh Videos

        Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Michael Krancer answers questions about the natural gas industry and Pennsylvania's role in it at the annual DUG East conference.

        And, as far as research..... you generally try to get others to do your since you have such imited ability.

        .... but if you need to see that long list of companies that shifted FROM Natural Gas plays like GMXR to OILIER plays......

        ........in addition to LINE who shifted ALL 2012 capex to HOGSHOOTER OIL zone from Granite Wash gas.....the list can be posted. This is nothing new but you still seem to be in la-la land on that point.

        Why don't you read some industry journals (you might like Rigzone) when you take a break from the repeated nonsense posts followed by the usual personal attacks.

        Lets start with ERF....who bought in the Bakken......did they sell all of the Marcellus or do they still have some?
        "Enerplus sells some Marcellus lands for $575 mln"

        Then Chesepeake,
        Please tell us about the CHK Hogshooter OIL record well and what they sold recently.

        Then Enervest....
        Please tell us about their monetization of the Utica acreage that they are selling off so they can put the funds to work elsewhere

        This one is from Sept 2012:
        "Norse Energy looks for buyer for Marcellus, Utica prospective acreage".

        "CONSOL to sell half its Marcellus interest...."
        That one is from June, 2012

        Need a few more to start to see a trend toward oilier plays from gas plays.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I have no words to describe how obviuosly desperate you are, to post something a year and half fold and then try to infer it means anything.

      Sine you are incaopable of actually posting any facts, here are some from your buddy Terry Engelder:

      Reasons for LONG hyperbolic decline in Marcellus:
      1. Horizontal well has access to unbounded reservoir in the vertical direction
      2, Natural fractures all access to much larger reservoir volume
      3, Drainage more complete in naturally fractured gas shale
      Engelder predicts Marcellus wells have 40 years of production, and here's why:

      Both the Barnett and Haynesville Shale formations had steep decline rates in the first few years of production. IMarcellus production rate declines the first year but only 17% of the EUR was produced. In addition, only 55% of the production will be produced in the first ten years, which is considerably less than the Haynesville formation.

      Maybe you should actually try doing some research first before trying to make it look like you know something.

      • 2 Replies to rlp2451
      • Your last comment is pretty funny.

        Research is the thing that you hope you can get others to do for you.

        You did not even know who Terry Engelder was until I posted his info for you.

        So,
        you still are avoiding the point that if the area is right now so terrific....then, why are some selling out there, so they can put the funds to work in other areas?

        This is from September 12, 2012
        (is that recent enough)

        "EnerVest Puts 539,000 Utica Shale Acres on Auction Block

        EnerVest has put leases for 539,000 Utica Shale acres in Ohio on the auction block and hopes to get....etc.

        From:
        March 30, 2012
        Consol Energy has sold half of its 663,350 Marcellus Shale acres in Pennsylvania and West Virginia...etc.



        How large of a list of recent sales would you like to see?

      • On this:

        "I have no words to describe how obviuosly desperate you are,"

        That is an absurd comment.

        What would I possibly be desperate about?

        Since, I would probably not buy a co in the Marcellus now.

        And,
        Linn Energy had the smarts to sell off their Marcellus property when gas was selling for around $11...... now it is under $4 a few years ago.

        So,
        why don't you explain why EVEP is trying to sell off its Utica prorperty,

        or,
        why CHK is shifting to HOGSHOOTER OIL where they are the record holder for a producing OIL well?

        You seem to be the one who sounds a bit desperate.

        Why is that?

    • Good Morning Sand,

      Reads like anti-energy propaganda to me. It is that flat earth quality where technology and process never improves so it is always off to the next clear cut. Pretty amusing to that an 'expert' with no reason to be interest is interested. Just a very good 'citizen'.

      Even as we see very real reductions in total drilling times as producers learn their areas. The truck traffic is not so much the rigs but moving production. As much of the rich gas in Penn is ethane and not valuable enough to truck it has and does stop production. It needs (as you know) not only a pipe for a facility to treat the gas to pipe specifications. EPD with their float process was a big advancement.

 
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