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  • rlp2451 rlp2451 Nov 23, 2012 8:24 AM Flag

    So, how about profitable is the Bakken?

    1,000,000 EURs Now who's joking? You actually think the average well in the Bakken that will produce that much? Funny man!

    No logic at all.

    Why stop at $30 millon? Why not $40 or 50...or even 60? The sky's the limit in your fantasy.

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    • Who is really the funny man....clownie?

      When you understand this:
      "Here is some info on Hess results ALREADY from LAST YEAR which shows they are at 1 Million EURs for their bakken wells on average....now:

      Hess has an impressive 500,000 net acre position on and to the East of the Nesson. This includes much of what appears to be the core in Mountrail County. Whats also interesting about Hess in the Bakken is their drilling and completion strategy. They are drilling dual laterals with impressive results. They say the economics of this are beneficial since it takes less surface equipment, fewer verticals, and they can be drilled from a pad. Hess has been giving the same stats for these wells the past few quarters.

      EUR of 1 million Boe per dual lateral
      $10-$11 million per dual lateral
      30 day IP of ~ 1000 BOPD, (~450-500 Boed per lateral) "

      And,
      that when you adjust the North Dakota state's numbers the 20,000,000 NET PROFIT that they published as the net profit for each typical Bakken Well becomes:

      1,000,000/615,000 Bbls (EUR) = 1.626 X ($20,000,000) = $32,520,325 as the adjusted NET PROFIT for each typical bakken well if the EUR is not 615,000 but at 1 Million Bbls.

      So,
      if that is what eventually happens and each Bakken well looks like about $32,520,325 net profit.....
      here is a question for anyone who can multiply, if you know about how many more wells will be drilled there, which is public information easily obtained.

      How much is the entire Williston basin production worth...the NET PROFIT at that number (which Hess is NOW already at....1 Million Bbls EUR....... for each bakken well) when the area is fully developed and using ONLY today's technology and at ONLY a 5% to 8% recovery rate of oil in place which in what the present recovery rate is?

      I think it will get considerably better with technology improvements over time but lets assume we use only today's technology.

      Hmmmmm?

      So, please tell us funny man.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to sandonthebeach47
      • Since I know you won't be able to find it, here it is from Hess' CC:

        "I think with regard to EURs, we continue to think that 500 to 600 is a good average used for the entire acreage position. However, as we focus on higher quality parts of the play in 2013, we expect EURs in the Middle Bakken to be closer to 600,000 to 700,000 barrels."

        Nowhere close your pie-in-the-sky 1,000,000. Maybe a few wells (even that is likely unachievable), but their AVERAGE , a little better than half of that. How many wells will they have to drill @ 250,000 EUR if they have 1,000,000/EUR wells?

        As of early this year, CLR announced their average is around 600,000. At 1,000 boe/day, thats less than two years' production. GMXR models between 500-600,000 EURs.

        For its North Dakota wells, Magnum Hunter estimates an average well cost of $6.9 million and an estimated ultimate recovery, EUR, rate of 350,000 barrels of oil equivalent.

        Even your golden child KOG "only" forecasts EUR of their wells between 650-850 EURs.

        This is why no one pays much attention to your forever pie-in-the-sky, one-off glory holes.

    • You just seem to always talk without knowing what you are talking about, don't you?...
      Still acting like the clown you are.

      So, here is why I think that the $20 Million NET ProfitND state estimate for each bakken well might be low:

      There are some single laterals in that range now 1 million EUR range & ND used only an average number of 615,000 Bbls for their EUR to get that $20 Million net profit number.

      As I said three times already the technology keeps improving....and if you look at the EUR estimates from about 3 years ago, they are now about double for the Bakken, and I think in three years from now that the rule and not the exception will be around 1 Million EURs for the Bakken wells. I think that is reasonable.

      Furthermore, clownie, Hess is already at 1 Million EURs for their dual-laterals with a cost at around $11 million each. That is about what Newfield was spending last year for single laterals if I remember correctly.

      Here is some info on Hess results ALREADY from LAST YEAR which shows they are at 1 Million EURs for their bakken wells on average....now:

      Hess has an impressive 500,000 net acre position on and to the East of the Nesson. This includes much of what appears to be the core in Mountrail County. Whats also interesting about Hess in the Bakken is their drilling and completion strategy. They are drilling dual laterals with impressive results. They say the economics of this are beneficial since it takes less surface equipment, fewer verticals, and they can be drilled from a pad. Hess has been giving the same stats for these wells the past few quarters.

      EUR of 1 million Boe per dual lateral
      $10-$11 million per dual lateral
      30 day IP of ~ 1000 BOPD, (~450-500 Boed per lateral)

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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