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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

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  • gpd8252 gpd8252 Dec 7, 2012 2:00 PM Flag

    Dennis Gartman's Crude Oil Price Prediction

    Dennis Gartman, like most of the "so called analysts" on CNBC, is touting his position in the markets. He's short oil. He could be right or he could be wrong. I don't think anyone truely knows where oil prices will be in 2, 6, 12 months. That's why Hedge contracts exist, to remove the uncertainty.

    If Linn pulls back, I'll be a buyer because I believe in the larger macro oil picture. 90 million barrels per day in oil production worldwide and 88 million barrels per day in demand. Oil depletion reduces the supply number by 2-3 million barrels per day per year. That's how much oil must be found, every year, just to maintain current supply levels. To put into perspective, Bakken shale oil fields, at full production which won't be reached for a few years, will be 2 million barrels per day. Not even enough to satisfy oil depletion occuring in one year.

    I am willing to bet that oil prices will be higher in 10 years and between now and then the price of oil will not collapse. It will go up or down, sometimes by significant amounts, but the price will always return to the "norm", which right now is between $80-$90/barrel. I expect this norm to creap up each year and should keep up with or exceed the inflation rate.

    One last thought, Europe is in recession, Asia is hoping for a soft landing, and the US is on the verge of a fiscal cliff, and WTI oil is still $86/barrel. Imagine where oil would be if Asia recovers, Europe recovers, and the nimrods in Washington solve our fiscal problems. 5 years ??

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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