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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • norrishappy norrishappy Jan 5, 2013 9:50 PM Flag

    Re: Re: Re: more routine?

    "As they burn through their $8,$7,$6 and now $5/mcf hedges, they have had to buy baby buy to fill the gap in DCF that the expiring hedges left."

    But the recent acquisition were at what what FD cost? Do we expect cash margins to increase or decrease on natural gas production? What about volume gains leveraging existing asset base? How would that impact actual cash margins on incremental production? Should we expect production costs to fall?

    "Similar story in 2014, 2015, 2016..Linn's put exposure in terms of put percentage decreases..while the actual prices are in the $5 range. So, Linn needs to see $5+ gas prices for them to even have the ability to recognize a gain."

    This of course is foolish. HIgher gas prices are of course better to long term valuation. But to be deluded enough to believe the fully booked planned production is not in the unit price demonstrates a level of breath taking investment naivete. BUt the olb does not know better and most importantly does not desire to know better as it does not serve the political agenda.

    The options offer two advantages. First as a financial obligation they do not require delivery like futures contracts. Allowing flexibility in the production model. Second is the possible upside if our economy ever goes into recovery and drives natural gas prices higher, with demand.

    There is also the question of LINE management being able to flex their production mix towards oil. This is what Hogshooter is all about. The last bout from the self proclaimed *pro* rrb was claiming dilution without adjusting or explaining the unit price and expectations.

    At this point ngl volumes are being sold well below the actual industry marginal cost of production. It could go down further but like natural gas prices it can not be sustained forever. NGL production volumes can be modified. At some point in the next five years drilling rigs at about half of that necessary to maintain supply will adjust the equation.

    It is the ngl pricing which is the risk factor not the natural gas prices which are know. NGL still cannot be effectively hedged which was yet another basic mistake of our self proclaimed pro RRB.

    I could go on but there is little point. RRB knows enough to get itself into real investment trouble but not enough to know it made a public fool of itself yet again.

    But the still most laughable open issue is the self pro-claimed *pro* claiming Lisxa backfitting returns was a matter of opinion. That would instantly cause him to lose his license. BUt on and on it goes.

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    • I find nothing wrong with the way LINE does business.I never have. Do i get a great big thata boy?
      As well i don't get your political agenda nonsence statement. What does a poitical agenda by some here have to do with the workings of LINE?

      Lisa plays stock the way they wish too. You play stocks the way you wish too. Who is to say who is wrong. It is merely advice on a MB. For you to criticize others is ludicrous. You self admitt you could of made more if your port wasn't so over weighted in MLP's. Who really cares on how one invests. People invest differently and are allowed to say what they wish on how they invest. You haven't the right to judge anyone or critique. It is a matter of style.

    • I was just reading his wordy nonsense....and notice that the OIL hedges were just avoided like it does not even matter.

      He is a bit short on facts, again.
      But his repeated points do not seem to change much.

      Yet, he does not even know what the Linn production exit rate in BOEPD was for 2012.....does he?

      Maybe I missed it somewhere in all that very familiar chatter.

      • 1 Reply to sandonthebeach47
      • Hi Sand,

        All this OLB foolishness cannot be sustained by anything but Progressive politics as their religion.

        The nasty thing is as this religion really believes all morals are relative they have no ethical virtue. So it just grinds on and on with the game just as Obama does.

        It is not about investments or getting the economy moving with our clean natural gas but playing games to obscure this from fellow Americans.

        The natural gas futures market is positively sloped for very logical reasons.

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