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Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) Message Board

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  • sandonthebeach47 sandonthebeach47 Jan 19, 2013 11:24 PM Flag

    OT (Unfortunately for LINE): Utica. Marcellus Could Hold $10 Trillion In Investment

    You can post and repost all the reports you like...but the numbers do not add up.

    You can check it easy enough but you avoided the USGS numbers for recoverable reserves for the Marcellus & the Utica that i posted.....I realize that it is easier to just post some report and hope that it is believed...but if you do the math....the numbers do not even come close.

    Look at this part of your post for example:
    At $4/MCF (thousand cubic feet), revenues from just the sale of shale gas could add over $20.0 billion to the region’s economy in the year 2020.

    If the indirect benefits from higher employment, increased tax revenues and improved infrastructure are added, the overall economic impact could be far greater. A recent study by IHS-Global/Cambridge Energy Research, a major energy consulting firm, states that drilling
    added $4.1 billion to Ohio’s GDP and $911.0 million to its tax revenues in 2012. This could climb to $18 billion and $4.6 billion, respectively, by 2020.

    So....how do you get to $TEN TRILLION from that?

    That report by a bond rating company....estimated a number that is about 2/3 of the entire USA GDP....and is based on a bunch of what ifs, maybe this some days...read the qualifying language in the post.

    Let us know what you calculate after you use the USGS reserve numbers to show just how off the report's numbers actually are....or,

    ........ if you can't do the math to check....send ALL of the threads to the report-writer with the USGS reserve quantities and ask them to apply the USGS reserve estimates and to check the basis for their report number of $Ten Trillion because some do not see it as credible.

    Lets see some numbers....not merely what someone hopes might happen.

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    • To help make the value estimate easier....this info is about how much is there in the area and the recoverable reserve estimate.

      From the USGS webpage:

      The Utica Shale contains about 38 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas (at the mean estimate) according to the first assessment of this continuous (unconventional) natural gas accumulation by the U. S. Geological Survey. The Utica Shale has a mean of 940 million barrels of unconventional oil resources and a mean of 208 million barrels of unconventional natural gas liquids.

      The Utica Shale lies beneath the Marcellus Shale, and both are part of the Appalachian Basin, which is the longest-producing petroleum province in the United States.

      Marcellus is at 84 TCF of natural gas, is the largest unconventional gas basin USGS has assessed.

      Now, you can just add up the TOTAL recoverable reserves and multiply by a unit value for oil &/or gas.......and estimate the aprox total value....and what do you get?

      Use $4 or $5/MCF for gas...or even $6 if you like
      Use even $100/Bbl for oil

      You pick whatever you like for NGLs....

      Add it all up and what total do you get?

      Then estimate all related and even slightly related economic activity?

      If you need some help estimating that, there are a few good places that I found but the Univ. of TX at Austin looks like one of the best resources.

    • Hi Sand,

      RLP did it again. Found useless mindless stuff to post on the board.

      BUt it knows how to do investments. Really - he and another stuffed the ballot box so it must be true.

 
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