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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

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  • opinionsarelike33 opinionsarelike33 Jan 20, 2013 2:55 PM Flag

    Gomerals on the march - Caliban in the lead

    Excellent explanation rrb. He likes to throw everyone into a single class. As you can tell norris likes to take things way out of context by twisting what you said about managing money for a few others. Oh yes a very nice job as well.

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    • It might have been better if I had babbled on about some lumberjacks?

    • "Excellent explanation rrb."

      No reason to insult him with your mock approval! HOw does Shakespeare relate to RRBs approval to play the part of Caliban on the board? With a very French spin at it too! ;-)

      Then he strikes a most noble attitude, with one leg shoved forwards, and his arms stretched away up, and his head tilted back, looking up at the sky; and then he begins to rip and rave and grit his teeth; and after that, all through his speech, he howled, and spread around, and swelled up his chest, and just knocked the spots out of any acting ever I see before. This is the speech—I learned it, easy enough, while he was learning it to the king:
      To be, or not to be; that is the bare bodkin
      That makes calamity of so long life;
      For who would fardels bear, till Birnam Wood do come to Dunsinane,
      But that the fear of something after death
      Murders the innocent sleep,
      Great nature's second course,
      And makes us rather sling the arrows of outrageous fortune
      Than fly to others that we know not of.
      There's the respect must give us pause:
      Wake Duncan with thy knocking! I would thou couldst;
      For who would bear the whips and scorns of time,
      The oppressor's wrong, the proud man's contumely,
      The law's delay, and the quietus which his pangs might take,
      In the dead waste and middle of the night, when churchyards yawn
      In customary suits of solemn black,
      But that the undiscovered country from whose bourne no traveler returns,
      Breathes forth contagion on the world,
      And thus the native hue of resolution, like the poor cat i' the adage,
      Is sicklied o'er with care,
      And all the clouds that lowered o'er our housetops,
      With this regard their currents turn awry,
      And lose the name of action.
      'Tis a consummation devoutly to be wished.
      But soft you, the fair Ophelia:
      Ope not thy ponderous and marble jaws,
      But get thee to a nunnery—go! (181-82)

      • 1 Reply to norrishappy
      • You know Norris and Sand are unhappy when they have to change the subject. Norris hates it when he is one upped. Like when he says to value a company based on its ebitda..yet forgets to mention that you should look at the capital structure to see how much of that cash is really free cash flow. Of course he knows you value the company based on the free cash flow..which is why he tried his little spin post right after he was put in his place.

        Why don't we get back to discussing Linn's high debt/ebitda ratio? It is one of the highest in the E&P MLP sector.Lets talk about how Linn will need to raise at least $1 billion to $1.5 billion in equity to get that ratio back to th 3.0x that they target.

        Let's talk about how Rockov has stated numerous times that they strive to achieve 2 cents of accretion to the distribution per unit per $100 million yet over the past 3 years, they have made over $5.6 billion in acquisitions yet have only managed to raise the disribution by $.38 in that time period, when, if they had managed to achieve their target, they would have raised by $1.12. Linn has barely managed .7 cents per $100 million in acquisitions.

        Let's talk about the falling natural gas margins. Margins that have been shrinking for several years now and have forced Linn to make deal after deal to shore up DCF. I would note, that the falling nat gas margins are largely the reason that Linn has not been able to grow the distribution at the rate that they desired. It's hard to go from making $5/mcf in margin, to making $3/mcf margin. You have to make deals and let the accretion from those deals plug the holes. Don't get distracted by those guys that want to tell you about how much of the volumes are hedged with puts...puts that are price about 60% higher than the market price (meaning natural gas has to rise above that before the puts become valuable).

        Let's talk about Linn's brash statement a few years ago (oh, and it is still in one of the presentations available on the Linn website) that each Granite Wash well drilled would add 1.5 cents per unit to the distributon after the well had paid out and had entered the flat part of the decline curve. So, using tha logic, to raise the distribution from $2.52 to $2.90, means Linn would have only had to drill about 25 GW wells. What do those wells cost? $8 million each? $10 million each? So, in other words, they could have raised the distribution from $2.52 to $2.90 spending just $250 million....

        Why don't we discuss how Linn doesn't hedge NGLs using direct hedges, and only recently hedged the NGLs that came with the BP Hugoton deal...and used dirty proxy hedges.

        BTW, Linn bond appears to be holding up nicely. Looks like very little capital appreciation over the last 2.5 years. Too bad we can't post charts anymore, I'm sure sand could pull one up showing the flatness.

 
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