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Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) Message Board

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  • lizahuang54321 lizahuang54321 Feb 1, 2013 4:29 PM Flag

    CVRR made a nice turn from yesterday's sell off

    Possibly, but picture this if you will...a major fire breaks out at the single facility of NTI, ALDW or CVRR. Pretty common occurance at refineries after all. But since these guys have just the one facility, it means halt to distributions for an indefinite period followed by an immediate crash in unit price of say, 75%, if the outage looks like lasting a while. That scenario is far from out of the question with the new refinery MLPs but is pretty impossible for LINE (or most other traditional MLPs). Part of the reason you get a high yield is to compensate for much higher risk, with risk factors that are unpredictable and can't be forecast in advance.

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    • CVRR has two refineries, plus a pipeline network which is not exclusive of deliveries to the refineries.

    • Yes liza you can play the what if game with any stock. Bottom line is we are all investors therefore we all take a certain amount of risks in any stock.

      • 1 Reply to opinionsarelike33
      • You miss the point. They are MUCH higher risk.
        Apart from the volatility of refining margins and cash flow, NTI and ALDW are single refinery, CVRR (rlp says) has two. It's like single point of failure. One big fire and all operations shut down. One mishap in one of LINE's operations will not result in all operations and cash flow coming to a halt. And refinery fires and unplanned outages are pretty common events, not black swan rare occurances. They happen all the time
        Much higher risk always requires a much higher yield to compensate.
        You can see the pattern, NTI, ALDW and CVRR all have yields in the 20% vicinity based on projected first year distributions. CVRR yield is a bit lower than the other two, likely by virtue of them having 2 refineries rather than just one.

 
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