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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • norrishappy norrishappy Mar 7, 2013 12:33 PM Flag

    Wow watch that PGH go.

    If it can stick over $5 it becomes a new game.

    Again for the OLB I am not warranting the dividend. Just that I do believe the PV10 reserves are conservative and real. Therefore so is the extreme discount to asset value.

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    • You are gambling then?

      • 1 Reply to opinionsarelike33
      • The difference between gambling and investing is ex-ante assumptions of the distribution of returns.

        Gambling has a negative to neutral expected return. Progressives believe they are lucky or equipped with special occult powers like Lisxa delusions.

        Investing has an ex-ante expected rate of positive return.

        Also it is gambling if you have behavioral faults like Stag in which you claim to understand investment but have not the most remote clue. So you engage in paying the highest distribution investment possible which the scientific method proves is an ex-ante negative return behavior. Then claim occult powers to time sales when the to-be-expected negative return comes.

        Now at where I bought PGH there is no question about the massive discount to assets. From what I can research of the therma development process and quality of the asset PGH has a better than 50/50 chance of maintaining the distribution with very minor asset sales. Once production is stabilized and dependable they should have the opportunity to fully hedge out production. This is proven technology and results from Lindbergh and Swan Hills Trend are more in hand than not.

        Heavy bitumen is indeed more cost effective to transport than light oil by rail. In fact many of the former entrepreneurial partnership which had their cash flow crimped by ill advised government action as well as larger c-corps are not making the investments to lighten up the oil for shipment.

        So yes PGH is speculative. But after research I believe the distribution of returns exceeded the risk factor. Oil could after all collapse for example. Otherwise given the huge discount to assets just simple sales are likkely to generate a positive return from where I purchased.

        Again market efficient goes way down once a security is under $5 for some time. Analysts do not put much time into it if at all. This is how the market missed LINE transformation and massive returns as it moved to fair value.

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