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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • rlp2451 rlp2451 Mar 18, 2013 8:13 AM Flag

    OT: NTI Gets Several Downgrades

    Northern Tier downgraded to Hold from Buy at Dahlman Rose

    Northern Tier downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen - Cowen downgraded Northern Tier Energy due to valuation.

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    • Does anyone know why NTI & ALDW has no Yahoo message board?

    • Cowen Securities analyst Sam Margolin noted, "We do not see significant near-term risk to our average 2013/14 distributable CF estimate of $4.48, and our rating change is not a referendum on the company's financial or operating position. Rather, it has become apparent that a 15% peak cycle yield represents fair value for NTI units, given the sensitivities to both relevant differentials and the underlying refining cycle. We downgrade to Hold, but expect investors to enjoy solid cash returns into the intermediate term."

      $4.48 return on $28.35 is around 16%.

    • That is a stupid downgrade on a refiner. it isn't even near valuation More buffoonery from Cowen to add shares.

      • 1 Reply to opinionsarelike33
      • every time NTI has touched its 50 day moving average (now at 27.45) has been a good entry, analyst downgrades are often good times for adding

        but I actually think Cowen's DCF estimate is reasonable- NTI distributed 1.27 last Q and they are going to have 25 down days in april and down all of october for scheduled maintenance, so if their spreads etc remain the same os last Q for the remainder of the year that gives me $4.24 in distributions for 2013 (just from days down for 2013 applied to last Q distr), well below what CVRR estimated ($5.50-6.50) so NTI should reasonably trade at a fair discount to CVRR

        ALDW is the one i am wondering is inefficeintly priced to downside- it has the lowest trading volume oif the three and only one analyst sat ion on its conference call, not getting the attention of NTI or CVRR

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