Maybe RLP'D can explain why Mircosoft has suddenly raced up from low $26 to low $30?
Has anything fundamental changed? Is it going back down real soon?
I myself would be content with 15% dividend growth and the cash flows are very well defined. There is always reasonable hope management finally executes and commoditized mobile devices drive the cloud and content - secure content.
But also privacy and security will be ever more valuable in the cloud. Phd's across Asian with nothing better to do than piracy is much like the privateers of the 17th century.
I am hearing that the windows 8 operating system is as bad as viesta. It slows the puter down and you can't go back from one page to the last page you viewed with the touch screen. People want it taken off to go back to windows 7. If it can't be taken off they are returning the putters. So anything can happen and congrats but I believe that 15% growth you are looking for will come back and haunt you for holding on to long.
Cloud is coming and with it a premium for business security. Which further buttresses MSFT enterprise and 'localized' productivity tool franchise. For medium and large enterprise security and compatibility or not worrying about compatibility is far more important than saving a few bucks on an app. Not to mention business analysts are power users and it is their reports which are sent to now highly mobile enterprise managers.
Without question entertainment content is going cloud and mobile entertainment is going cloud. Where making content easy is far more important.
The forward PE remains under 10 before adjusting out the massive cash horde. So as a practical matter; even if this is a declining software franchise, dividend growth can be maintained by share repurchases at a 10% earnings yield or better.
But maybe; just maybe, after a decade of missing the boat management can figure out how to execute at something other than gaming systems and productivity tools. Basically at this price it there is embedded a free call on management actually executing. To management's record and shame.
It will be interesting to see if Apple executes. You can happily note I am down a bit at the current quote.
Oh as I know how important this all is to you.
Vanguard has my performance at 21%+ one year and 19%+ three years.
It is nice but my defensive companies I probably will never sell can not continue so neither can I.