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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • jfredrogo jfredrogo Apr 19, 2013 2:46 PM Flag

    rise in nat gas help line?

    my question is simple, if nat gas continues to rise , say to 5.50, will this help line much?

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    • Only to the extent that a certain percentage of natural gas production is not hedged or they can ramp up production of non-hedged natural gas (the latter of which may have the effect of driving the price down).

    • Yes. But what makes LINE very different from other Oil and Gas EPs is the forward sale of planned production.

      So the natural gas futures market curve. The recent rise in spot prices has come with the futures market flattening. Basically like all commodities markets natural gas is forecasting very slow growth or recession. So the fact the natural gas market has not gone into backwardization - lower prices in the future - is a very good thing for line.

      LINE is not a static trust but owns a fully diversified portfolio of oil, gas and liquids assets. One of the nice things about puts was that if prices go low enough they could just cash them in rather than produce. With swaps they must produce or actually accept the commodity risk.

      If our economy actually starts growing and pulling the rest of the world along with us as always happens - the world runs trade deficits with us - then I would expect the natural gas futures market to go steeply contango.

      The higher spot prices reflect a closing supply demand balance at very depressed - worst economic recovery in modern era - economic growth.

      So higher spot prices are good. But they are better for gas EPs which are not hedged.

      Hope this helps.

    • How much has it helped going from $3.50 to 4.50?

 
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