If I am correct that LNCO and LINE get the same dividend and share the same risks then the spread in prices between LNCO and LINE should be close to 0. As I write the spread is about $4.00. If the spread converges either LINE should increase in price or LNCO come down, or a combination of both. I think that both will go up, but LINE will go up more because LINE is more heavily shorted than LNCO. My target for LINE at any time is whatever LNCO is trading at; right now it is around 37.63. LINE might pop to that price after merger goes through.
I watch LNCO stock movement because it might affect whether the BRY acquisition will go through. The acquisition is at a rate of 1 share of BRY gets 1.25 shares of LNCO. If the price of LNCO goes too far down then the shareholders may figure they will do better if it doesn't go through. When LNCO announced the merger they paid an about 20% premium for BRY and LNCO has not fallen 20% so the BRY shareholders are comfortably ahead at this point and it looks like the acquisition will go through.