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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • tampico1200 tampico1200 Sep 10, 2013 11:56 AM Flag

    Pop on Berry deal ??

    Any guesses ?? I'm saying + $5-7 min. Timing ??? Hard to bet on SEC doing anything quickly !

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    • I don't think SEC is holding the deal.

      • 1 Reply to rohankrishna95
      • I think the entire SEC "deal" is around the S-4. It has been amended what 3 times now? To me that smells like government intervention... On top of that the changes are not to anything structural, and more along verbiage. That along with the "informal inquiry" which is not a term I see the SEC using. They use MUI or matter under inquiry. Things just are not stacking up here.

        I'm starting to think more and more this is more around the S4 than LINE as a company, and the whole Hedgeye POV was done to make some quick money when they knew LINE could not respond. That is evidenced in their "non event" against KMI.

    • Tampico, if you haven't kissed the Berry deal goodbye (as has the market), I do believe you're deceiving yourself. If you held BRY and actually wanted the deal as it stands, you'd simply sell your BRY, buy an additional 25% more shares of LNCO, and keep the substantial difference in cash. If ultimately there *is* a Berry deal, it will have to be on much more favorable terms to Berry than what now exists. And Linn may well find that unsuitable, considering the cash drain from increased distributions.

      • 3 Replies to ronharv
      • Well---- 2 1/2 bucks today on the hint of a deal completion. I think the deal itself is worth another $5 to put us into the mid- $30 range.. And--oh ron--still think I'm "deceiving" myself ???

      • Ron, if the SEC clears the deal, then the LINE price goes up making it the same deal they offered BRY that has been accepted by BRY mgt. Plus it is clear that the companies together are worth more than the companies apart (and the street agrees) which means the shareholders will likely sign off on the deal. You are focused on LINE current price which is clearly here due to uncertainty that should be cleared up this month (assuming everyone at the SEC isn't incompetent)

      • Exactly why finishing up the SEC investigation with nothing material could lead to a very large price gain. Then that gain could put the BRY deal back on and that is not in the LINE price.

        My goodness.

        Emotion based indignation to avoid engaging in Free Speech certainly does not benefit Ron. One must wonder how many decades this has been going on? Sadly it seems very many.

        Is it reasonable to expect the wisdom of our honored American elders would understand this?

    • My best guess: It has finally solidified that 24ish is the bottom based on BRY and the SEC. From here on out is upside and people are jumping back in at a steep discount.

    • We can not know how great the SEC discount is until they finally finish up. Then we will have a rational idea of what the value of the deal is to BRY owners.

      The wide discount betwenn LINE and LNCO demonstrates trading is no where near efficient.

      BUt I agree if eliminating the SEC discount puts the LINE price over $30 the deal is back on. Perhaps a minor adjustment to the conversion rate. Cash worries go away and so $5 to $7 is happy thinking but certainly not unreasonable.

      • 1 Reply to norrishappy
      • Federal agencies make decisions slowly if at all. It's kind of a "cover your #$%$" mentality because they would look especially bad if they were to make an unwise decision without sitting on it for months or years. One example which comes to mind was the length of time the FCC took approval of the Sirius-XM merger. I think that decision took about a year and a half, and during that time Sirius shareholders were in limbo with a seriously depressed stock...

        Sentiment: Hold

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