I think the stock will get back to 30 and the deal will happen. But mid 30s or higher will take a long time. The premier upstream MLP's yield about 8.5%. The dogs 12%. It'll take years for LINE to regain the trust to re-enter the premier list. So I think it'll settle at a 10% yield for a while.
Remember also there are lots of people who have entered in the low 20s, so there will be lots of profit taking and along the way to $30.
That's a fair point, on both counts. I always held some LINE, but it was a rather small position, a fifth of what I held in VNR for example. Now LINE is my largest holding, but it won't stay that way, I bought all those shares substantially south of here for a trade, and I'll cash out at some point. So will a lot of others.
Management would not have announced a 9/30 date without talking to SEC and knowing the issues will be resolved by then. People are giving this stock/units away in the low 26's. With BRY deal, coverage is over 100% and the 12% return we have been getting lately is a lock.
Don't expect it all in one day, but I would be surprised if we don't see $30+ stock within the next week or so. If SEC is truly behind us, the distribution is much more assured now (especially if merger occurs), so it's a great chance for a 10%+ distribution in a much lower risk situation than existed yesterday.
Next step should be analysts weighing in. I foresee a lot of positive comments and some nice price targets. Today the analysts are on the phone to LINE and to BRY about the merger etc and preparing their updated projections and prices. The next step after that will be the q3 report. So I think LINE will move higher. I bought more at $26.18 and 26.03. Dear shorts, please reshort! Your added buying interest is very helpful. Ruellia
I'm very disappointed in the move, I expected it to rush up into the high $20's almost immediately, this is rather tepid. Quite frankly, I'm scratching my head, either (1) the meaning of this hasn't really sunk in yet, or (2) the damage done here is going to be a lot deeper, it's not something that will heal overnight. Maybe the unit price will start to move over the next few days as the anal-lysts pile on.
Patience is a virtue in these event bound situations, as long as you are on the right side of the eventual outcome. So much short term sentimental trading happens to muddy the picture and confuse the real longs. Good for the quick profit takers to make their quick buck, but for the ones to truly benefit from the resolution of the crisis, waiting out is the most profit generating option. Good luck to all the ones who decide to stick around. Monthly distributions are " icing on the cake", so to speak.
I hope so. I bought a bunch more at $24.30 after the WFC projections for Linn q3 and the rise in NGL prices, all things I had been fretting about. Many thanks to Ruby, Venturabay, and all the people that posted numbers and analysis. You put money in my pocket.
Really now, 50!, have you made a list of natural gas companies and their reserves, and reserves divided by market cap? Did you see LINE at the bottom of the list? They pay a great dividend yes, but when I calculated it, I believed that there was something behind what Barron's wrote, or at the very least it is true that the company has low reserves and can only maintain what they have going by purchasing another company. I'm not surprised people will post insanely optimistic baloney, but I am surprised 5 others would give nonsense a thumbs up. People are not willing to take the time to do basic calculations.
Yes I agree. If the elimiating the SEC discount takes LINE up above $30 the BRY is back on the table. Which creates it's own wind.
Plus the wide and inefficient discount between LINE and LNCO remains.