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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • mongoslobber mongoslobber Oct 25, 2013 10:09 AM Flag

    LINE price after the BRY deal fails?

    I can't see how a BRY shareholder could vote for the takeover, so my question is what is LINE worth after the deal doesn't go through?

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    • Interesting. Would you consider going short on BRY? It's up ? 10 on merger

    • If BRY falls through, you know they have another one just as good in the pipeline. cant wait to hear what it is!! looks like BRY holders will suffer too, just watch.

    • The fact this is holding around $27 is encouraging. This is the most concrete evidence we've had to date that this deal won't go through and we are at $27. A couple months ago this would have taken the stock to $22. Hell we are higher today than we were at the open last Friday. Normally the short interest would have taken this down 10%. Very bullish in my opinion.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Once Linn got jammed up with the SEC, I posted several times that I believed the BRY deal was dead. But a second reason was that any rational BRY holder who really wanted LNCO could have sold their BRY, bought LNCO, and kept a chunk of money to boot. I'm sure that numerous others have felt the same way and made the decision to either sell Linn/LinnCo because of diminished prospects or just hold on (as I do) for the income, which doesn't seem significantly threatened despite mediocre management.

      So I think that the current turmoil will resolve itself after the dust settles, and Linn's PPS a few weeks after the BRY deal is nixed won't be much different from where it is now because so many holders have anticipated the event and already taken whatever action they deemed appropriate. There'll be some intervening panic, of course, by folks who had been in denial, but that shouldn't last too long.

      So what's the upshot? Well, for income investors inclined to sell now (or when the deal is buried), I'd say not to do it. Sit back, collect your money, and pretend that Linn is a long-term bond. Continued steady income will be the bootstraps that Linn will pull itself up by. (And for those still clutching at straws of hope, note Berry's really impressive earnings report from two days ago. Yet more reason for them to shun the LNCO deal.)

    • depends if we have no SEC news & a failed BRY deal... 'high teens'
      SEC ending inquiry & a failed deal... could actually still go up

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