New book value after sale of esurance,tender offer, and $100MM tax assumption on sale of esurance is $540. Next years earnings estimate $16. Discount to BV of $556 next year is 28%. That is pretty much at historical lows, Should trade up to BV by next year. Lots of price increases in RE insure biz. Stock is asteal and very safe. Remember BV will jump based on mark to market gains on bonds and that is addition to the above.
Nah, I have fun with OB, just don't post much more there. Seems like every time OB trades thinly down close to book, you buy it...then wait a couple weeks, and it usually ticks back. I've seen OB with 60-80 cent ranges.. And you have support when you get in in mid $12's..because the yield is close to 6.4%.
So no, dope.....I didn't get run off OB thread. OB is a nice little trader.....but thin so you can do any kind of size. Still..profitable. Just like WTM is going top be nicely prifitable. I posted I've been taking it in low to mid 390's. I think within 2 month syou will see WTM a lot higher than here. I actually think you will se WTM at $440 before you will see AAPL at $440. And you don't take the large swings AAPL does.
You know another thing Buffet would gain if he took WTM is White Mountain Advisors. Few people know of them. Just the way Buffet likes it. But WM Advisors manages over << $33 BILLION >>. If you notice of late Buffet is hiring outside guys (two) to do investments for him. WM Advisors is all set up already. And they invest across the board. Fixed income, equities, currency, hedge funds.....even derivatives. WM Advoisors manages the monies for all the smaller insurance firms OB owns. So they focus on running and selling insurace.. WM Advisrs handles tgheir investment side. Much more efficient than each company staffing up their own investment dept.
Also if you look at first 6 months results, I see that WTM was booking some equity losses. I would expect WTM to do more of that, if they have losses on equity side.....to offset tax efficiently.... the gains from Esurance.
I think AGO could be a target for WTM. AGO is Assured Guaranty, a muni bond insurer. Cochran ran it for a long time. It has passsed thru several hands. Stock is $11. Book value about $20. MArket cap is $2 billion. AGO is what Cochran knows. But not sure of muni bond insurers are that good nowadays.
I'd rather see WTM sell out to Buffet. Buffet knows WTM. he used to own a lot, but I think he was uncomfortable with Esurance, vis a vis, how they compete with GEICO. Now Esurance is gone. Also, WTM reorganized all their reinsurance under one group, Sirius. Sirius (white Mtn Re) does large business with Buffet reinsurance. OB also does large reinsure biz with Buffet.
I also notice that OB exited the auto insurance area, at a loss. OB in auto insurance competed with GEICO. Buffet would like the OB specialty focus. No more autos in OB, and no more GEICO competition in WTM.
WTM also owns over 20% of SYA. Buffet also owns over 20% of SYA!
I think book will be just under $550 when the Esurance deal closes. if you can stand the market and wait a month or two, I think WTM will spike on closing. I nibble a few shares when down below $400. I think theres a $50 pop on esurance closing.