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White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

  • snogreen snogreen Oct 8, 2011 7:28 AM Flag

    close deal & then tank

    Funny. WTM closes teh esurance deal...get's about $1 billion cash....and tansdk 14 points. I think they are releasing the 3rdQ results on 26th. Same as OB? I'm curious what they will ay on teh book value of WTM. Will they give book value as of sept 30? or will they give book value AFTER including the $1 billion they got Oct 7.

    I figure w/o the $1 billi, WTM book should be up about $15....about $463..maybe a tad higher. That is just based on that they reduced shares outstanding by almopst 4%.....and since they have a large bond portfolio, that exploded upwards. But not sure of any debits from Hurricane Irene.

    if you add in the $1 billion? WTM said it would add about $80 to BV. Which shoudl then put WTM to about a $530 book value. IF they do get the BV to $530.........I don't see a ton of risk buying WTM in the mid $390's. I think there's a decent "put".....that company will buyback more if it dips further.

    I still think WTM is now a perfectt fit for Buffet. He get's a $33 billion money manager in White Mtn Advisors. he gets a good niche specialty insurance company, all cleaned up..in OB. he gets an over 20% stake in SYA......and Buffet already owns 20% of SYA too! He gets the 75% stake OB......and he gets a good Re company, now set up all under one name, Sirius Re........and Sirius does a lot of european biz. Good diversification for Buffet. And now WTM sits on close to $2 billion in CASH...so it has a rock solid balance sheet.....and WTM sells now for about $130 below liquidation value.

    But also watch out for WTM to make a purchase. The director of WTM that just resignd used to run AGO. watch that one.

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    • WTM Advisors manages internal money and fixed income only for the most part. They outsource most of the equity management to Prospector. Not much value IMHO.

      Lots of value in OB, SYA and reinsurance companies.

      Hope they get something done with the excess capital before market moves away from them.

      Share tenders at these levels are a gift.

 
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