Mullah wrote: "((Why in your little [spiny mouse] mind would China allow foreign investments into their country?)) ... Why does any less-advanced country tolerate an outsider in their kitchen? Because they want something that outsider has. ... Once they get what they want, GM's will become persona non grata. Maybe Wngr doesn't think so. He is a lot closer to the company than I am. OTOH, I, being further, offer a different perspective. ..."
You talk as if China could declare GM as a "persona non grata" of the Chinese car industry ... in that case, China would need to "banish" Ford, VW, and your Toyota as well, one may think. Any actions of China that would be seen in that light won't come easy. That would almost certainly cause a major economic showdown between China and the rest of the world - everyone would lose.
Then, the processes of GM et al. to design, manufacture, test, market, deploy, and sell cars are so advanced, IMO, it will be f'king difficult for newcomers to come close to that _on a large scale_. And if they are not really competitive, they'll lose. That apparently happened to all Eastern European car manufacturers after the iron curtain came down - they tried for a while but then were acquired or disappeard. They were not able to compete. ... A few articles suggest that many smaller local Chinese car manufacturers that sprung up in the 1990's show similar signs of fatigue; they are struggling and looking for partners. Many will have to consolidate or will be acquired by international companies. GM with its plan to increase its car output in China by 75% in 2015 will almost certainly be one of those consolidators.
Most important, IMO, the creation and preservation of an effective brand is one of the most difficult undertakings of any car company, and this includes the Chinese and, unfortunately, Opel, too.
On the subject of improvement at GM
UAW-GM assembly facillities scored higher than Toyota assembly facilities. Way to go, UAW!
GM continues overall improvement in productivity
RP news wires, Noria Corporation
General Motors Corporation improved overall productivity, despite an 8 percent production volume decrease last year, according to The Harbour Report North America 2008. The Harbour Report measures North American automotive manufacturers' assembly, powertrain and stamping plant productivity.
GM is the only manufacturer to consistently improve year-over-year overall in the history of the annual report. The company's Toledo, Ohio, transmission plant was the most productive transmission plant in North America for the second year in a row, at 2.37 hours per transmission.
Additionally, three of GM's assembly plants, five of its engine plants and two stamping plants were ranked in the top 10 in productivity in their respective categories. GM improved its overall manufacturing productivity slightly by 0.2 percent over last year.
In the recent J.D. Power Initial Quality Study, GM accomplished a 9 percent year-over-year improvement, outpacing the industry while achieving its best PPH (problems per hundred) levels ever. The company won three segments: Chevrolet Malibu (Midsize Car), Pontiac Grand Prix (Large Car), Chevrolet Silverado LD Classic (Large Pickup), and its Fairfax, Kan., assembly plant received the Bronze plant award.
"We are pleased that UAW-GM assembly facilities scored higher than Toyota assembly facilities, and our Toledo transmission plant was number one for the second year in a row," said United Auto Workers vice president Cal Rapson. "But it's clear that all manufacturers are upping their game and we need to focus on improvements to stay in front."
Great posts today! Really good stuff. Like the China analysis. Should it blow up in China, and it probably will, I love the fact that GM is basically getting paid percentages, like a broker. Capital investment done in conjunction with China and very little lost if forced out. Topside is limited by this arrangement,, but far more importantly, a low cost exit is available.
As you point out, GM has been regarded as having some of the cleanest, most modern and productive plants for many years now. It is no mirage, at all, the quality being produced. Low recalls are to be expected going forward.
Overall market remains ok. Bought back GM at 26.66 yesterday and 26.51 today. Should things improve a bit, they are well positioned.
Great posts by Jeye today too!!! Now, off for a nice night with my bride. Good weekend to you GMer's.
There's a related article on Bloomberg covering Bernstein.
China Is 10 Years From Having Global Automaker, Bernstein Says
By Bloomberg News - Feb 21, 2013 8:34 PM PT
Myth maker, fear not that China will grab our GM investment. The title of this article says it all.
Of the 100 Chinese brands, Bernstein says, many are losing market share to international brands. But he does believe that the Chinese will enter the global scene at some point. Well, I guess it's pretty obvious; but given GM's leadership role in China, this could even turn into a competitive advantage.
"... China’s brands are losing share in their home market as foreign manufacturers increase local production and introduce lower-priced models. The country’s automakers spend less than 2 percent of revenue on research and product development, or about half the global average, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. ..."
Anyways, you don't care. In 10 years, YOU will have exactly ZERO income from GM, and I will have bought and sold GM the 50th. Too bad you miss out on a steady, low-risk source of income.
And all the while the Duhtroit morons slam our ally Japan because they force you compete, gm is investing in, and building up China, the biggest present and future threat to America. Gm is counting sooo much on winning in the China market, what are you going to do when the trade and real war starts?