Just thought I would posted it since I don't see Tesla any where on the first forum page. People on the GM board seem a little obsessed with Tesla for the moment. Expect them hit their numbers this quarter for sure, still going through pend up demand. Interestingly I've heard from more than one Model S driver that they also have a deposit in on the Model X when it comes out. That should get the Model X off to a good start my question is how many of these rich guys can there be to buy these cars??? Assume every three years they buy a new one if they like it. With the Model S and X that would mean Tesla would need 40 K buyers a year 120K buyers over three years. I don't think there are that many buyers out there after the initial rush.
Caddy ELR would take a chunk of that market but 35 miles just isn't far enough, double that to 70 and it would probably be enough.
"my question is how many of these rich guys can there be to buy these cars??? "
That's my question exactly - we're in the honeymoon phase of the lust for tesla.
The honeymoon won't last forever and it will simply be a niche player.
Neat vehicle but won't be mass produced. Now, all that said, if their business model expects nothing more, then it can be profitable. Just don't expect continued revenue and profit growth....
((((my question is how many of these rich guys can there be to buy these cars??? Assume every three years they buy a new one if they like it. With the Model S and X that would mean Tesla would need 40 K buyers a year 120K buyers over three years. I don't think there are that many buyers out there after the initial rush.))))
I think you can assume anyone who owns a BMW 535i or a loaded CTS is already paying around 50 grand, and you see plenty of those.
But those are going to use gas. And both are going to cost plenty to fix in a few years if you keep them.
And they aren't really all that cool.
And with the Tesla, you can ride in the car pool lane alone. They will sell!
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Are the car-pool lanes limited to electric vehicles only? What about the Volt wagon AKA the Volt?
What about the Prius and other hybrids? What about Washington State. Are they letting single
drivers in some vehicles drive in the car-pool lanes? In AZ, the car-pool lanes are only restricted
during the morning and evening rush period and are otherwise opened up to all drivers. In WA
State it's tough luck for all be HOV vehicles (so far as I know.)
The Model S is priced to high for most of the 5 series crowd or the CTS crowd. Average selling price is more like 90K and you can't justify the gas savings in the price difference. Like I said the people buying Teslas are not going to keep them long enough for a big repair bill and either is the CTS buyers or BMW buyers. Higher end cars are bought by people trade them in about 3 years usually. Big question is there second hand buyers for a Model S?? I've bought second hand cars before but I know what I was getting. Why buy a 4X4 brand new if you plan to use it off road? Easy enough to look and see if the 4X4 you're look at has had a rough life or not. In Tesla's case who knows what will happen with the batteries and if they have abused some how???
Many questions that will be answer in the relatively near future.
The problem with Tesla is that they are operating in a very small niche market. They are doing fairly well in it right now. But that market is pretty much limited to big cities in California and New York. I'm personally comparing it to the old DeLorian market. Started out great but went belly up. Like other people said here it's all in the battery. Also the government tax incentives are helping all EVs right now. That incentive won't last forever.
I've seen three Model S's driving around Hilton Head Island SC which I would consider far from big city or even near a big city. In fact I was trying to figure out where I could go if I bought a Model S and the answer is I would be in trouble in just about any direction. I'm 4-5 hours from Orlando, Charlotte, Atlanta to many miles for one charge. I figured I could stop in Jacksonville on my way to Orlando but there are no super chargers so it would be a long stop on 220V socket and it would be problematic with a couple of kids and the wife wanting to get to the theme parks.
Day to day driving the model S is doable for me but the range is a problem for me to get to a big city.
Tesla is not a niche player. They are busily selling components and licensing cars for Toyota and Mercedes, and making very good money at it.
In addition, they are coming out with another new model shortly. I do not like to see Gull Wing doors on an SUV, ever! To me, that is the most questionable thing I have seen from Tesla.
They own a massive factory that GM gave up on, so they have tons of room to expand production.
I just stopped in to a Tesla store on Sunday afternoon. It was fricking BUSY. Seriously, I counted a pretty consistent number of visitors in that store throughout the time I spent there. It averaged about 30 customers at a time the entire hour. I saw young junior high girls coming in. I saw people that I had to be over 80. The buzz is incredible. As nice as these cars look in pictures, they look even better in person.
There were only 3 to 5 employees on the floor, that I saw, and it was hard to even get near one. All very young. None over 30.
You had to wait to sit in the cars.
Got me a nice Tesla ball cap as a souvenir of my visit.
Their market is not regionally limited since their range is long already and getting longer. The Model S is fantastic so anyone that likes good cars will love it.
After his successes with PayPal, SpaceX, and the Tesla Roadster, you'd think people would be done betting against Elon Musk by now.
Sentiment: Strong Sell