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General Motors Company Message Board

  • john_kimes john_kimes Jul 11, 2013 4:49 PM Flag

    Awe, it's days like this I miss Mikey the most....

    Remember the BK2 talk? .....the auto sector is going to do very well in the next 15 to 20 years...huge growth

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    • It's a big world and every conference I attend shows growth out to 2020 with a 4 fold increase in cars on our planet. So what if the growth is off our shores or even Europes shores....fact is China, India, Brazil...and others want theirs...GM is positioned well for the growth. I'm bullish on GM.

      US and Europe are sick...China isn't.

    • " .....the auto sector is going to do very well in the next 15 to 20 years...huge growth"

      Not to be the voice of doom, but I'm not so sure John. The reason I say that has nothing to do with any particular car maker either. I think the industry is in for some contraction. It's a shame because cars in general have never been so good both from an innovation AND build quality standpoint. The best ever.

      Here's the problem in my mind. Look at what's happening in Europe. Governments can neither control their spending nor take the necessary actions to stop the growth of debt. The world's politicians have failed all of us. The funk that Europe is in now will soon be here, in Japan and elsewhere. Since automobiles are a high expense item, it will be the first decision postponed. Again, look at Europe and the mess that the auto market is there. Did you ever believe you would see any government, in particular a democracy, take money out of someone's private bank account? Already happened in Greece. And there has been NOTHING done to correct the situation. They will go from crisis to crisis without addressing the problem.

      And before anyone gets too cocky, we have the same situation here. We haven't yet run out of people to fund our debt, but it will happen. The U.S. government is the biggest ponzi scheme ever, Bernie Maddoff could take lessons. Think the sequester debacle was something, even with the politicians trying to make us believe that it was a huge problem by taking away flyovers for baseball's opening day, and other superficial stuff like that they are still spending billions on pork. They don't get it. They are putting us and, in particular our kids, in a terrible situation. Now the biggest issue is immigration, it's almost like they think they fixed the financial disaster and are on to something else.

      Businesses like the car industry, home building, large appliance makers, any large expenditure industries are in for a terrible time for the next 10-20 years, IMHO.

      • 3 Replies to wngr123
      • fricken old accountants! can't see two feet in front of themselves. USA is the land of innovation and it is currently innovating. sorry if your capital expenditures were deployed in the wrong places...

        we've been trying to tell you that for a couple of years now....

      • Well taken points, Wngr.

        There's a natural tendency for us to be western-centric, but there's much than just the USA and Europe, and other factors must be considered in the grand equation. I'm looking at a world map which covers a wall of my office and I see:

        --by landmass, the USA + Europe (west + east) + China can easily fit into Africa's footprint.
        --by population, China's ~1.34BB + India's 1.24BB is ~ 1/3+ of the world's ~ 7.1BB population

        So, on a macro level, there are powerful components to global economic performance than USA and Europe. It's easy to forget this for western centric folks like us American, but the developing world possess a huge part of the economic growth levers: population (rising consumer mass), natural resources, motivation and drive, political/judicial/infrastructure improvements that are essential to strong growth.

        The other thing is history. There's never been a day in recorded history of modern civilization when there weren't problems of one sort or another, large and small. Yet, we make it through and progress, more or less smoothly.

        This all isn't happy talk, but in my experience systems tend to find an equilibrium often in ways that are completely unexpected. An obvious example would be the recent world economic implosion, and I remember watching Hank Paulson/Treasury Secretary on Bloomberg in the early morning hours in Sept 2008 announcing the takeover of FannieMae/FreddieMac. This man (his extraordinarily distinguished credentials and physical hulk notwithstanding) looked liked a scared rabbit at that moment, the world financial systems were on the brink of collapse, and yet, now in 2013 it hasn't and things have simmered down to merely hand-wringing type worries.

        Expect the unexpected, but advancement continues.

      • Wngr,

        I tend to agree that an automotive boom is hardly a sure thing, and for yet another reason. When I talk to younger people many of them do not look forward to owning cars as much as our generation did. Some wish we would get our priorities straight and develop our public transportation systems and revise our urban and suburban planning so they do not require long commutes to places of employment.

        Some kids, even here in LA, do not get driver's licenses until they are well into their 20's

        They just ain't, necessarily, just like us.


        Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Sounds like you have been chowing down at Supor's counterbalancing exuberance trough. A scientist
      such as yourself should know that you can't print capital.

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