I don't usually post to the boards, but I
couldn't resist. Synopsys is a great company. We are
introducing new products at a rate that would dizzy any other
company around. We are in the middle of a semiconductor
upturn powered by cell phones and the internet -- and
every piece of silicon made is developed with Synopsys
software -- our software enables Intc, Mot, Amd, Covd,
Csco, Brcm, Brcd, Ancr, etc to kick ass. This current
downturn and downgrade is simply a ploy by the analysts to
get the price down so they can get in. The only
rational reason for the stock to be down is over worries
about earnings next month (and as an employee, I have
no clue what they will be). Even if they were
HORRIBLE, this is already built into the stock price at $50
(and $45). If you focus on the long term, this is the
"dip" you should be buying on -- the analysys know the
truth, they know that SNPS kicks ass and they will
upgrade it once again. Finally, please see Edgar for our
14A -- 200,000,000 shares to 400,000,000. This
usually means stock split. My forcast -- a quick recovery
to $75 once everyone sees the numbers. Then a stock
split to drive it $100/$120. Im loading the boat.
From a value standpoint SNPS is a much better
investment. From a growth standpoint? who knows? It's all
about the product and if CDN comes up with a better
product then to the victor go the spoils.
willing to bet on SNPS though because they have tons more
cash for R&D. And although they have lost key sales
people, the developers are still around. If this hits 35
I'll probably double down. It's a good
What do you think?
I was just re-reading the latest CSFB analyst
reports on CDN and SNPS. The CSFB analyst is a former EDA
industry insider and I take him seriously.
report (latest reiteration 12/13/99) estimates SNPS to
earn $3.60 in FY 2001 and has a 12-month price target
of $90. SNPS is a "strong buy".
report (dated 1/26/00) estimates CDN to earn $0.85 in
FY2001 and has a 12-month price target of $32. CDN is a
I can't help feeling that the CDN price target is
reaching a little high. It would imply a forward PE of 38,
compared to the implied forward PE of 25 in the SNPS
target. Anybody else feel that these numbers suport SNPS
as the better investment right now?
Hmm... don't think so..SNPS has market share in
logic synthesis, but that is about it. CDN has a very
good product in this space now - there are people that
say that CDN's is better (faster runtime, better
circuit results) and there are those that say the
opposite. So this probably means that in reality things are
All in all market share is
important, but for new seats, SNPS has to drop their price
for logic synthesis since CDN's offering is so good.
Customers with big SNPS installations don't have a reason
to switch unless they are upset with SNPS service,
bug fix rate, or price gouging. and even with a lower
price, thats not enough of an incentive to switch. But I
have heard from CDN people that they are winning sales
without evaluations now.
I agree with other
posters - the battle will be in the PhysOpt/PKS space -
this is a product that will have the biggest impact on
circuit performance. Doesn't mean that I am not buying
SNPS at these levels though. Both CDN and SNPS have a
lot of upside.
Oh yeah - and those that know
me will confirm this - the color of the sky in my
world is very very green.
No news except what's known. Possibly not
matching quarter estimates despite adamant statement by
management. Executive salesforce exiting (obviously not good
news for company reliant on sales). Whispers of
startups with new technology. put all this together with a
downgrade and insiders sales recently reported(at the high
yes but still up to half of some of their positions)
and you have hammer time.
analyst expects major changes in the way chips are
designed (This year) and most thinkeither synopsys or
cadence will win. realistically they will probably
rating = obviously a buy at this level. this news is
reported and already priced in.
what color is the sky in your world?
Cadence's BuildGates results don't come close to Design
Compiler. ASIC engineers know this. it is a no-brainer to
choose DC. CDN had to drop it's prices because nobody
wanted their poor-performing tool.
technology is simply better that that of CDN (by more than a
generation or two). that is a FACT. of course, you are
obviously not an engineer, so you can't be expected to know
what you are talking about.
the frontend war is
over and SNPS won it resoundingly. now, the backend
war is heating up and the smart money is on
what does this mean to the short term for SNPS
stockholders??? who the hell knows? the stock market is like one
big casino - you can't really know how any stock will
do in the short term... but, in the long run, they
will make out like bandits.
this stock drop is
simply a great buying opportunity. buy it, hold it,
start smiling :-)
This company is owned 94% by institutions. The
trading volume is very thin (It's most active day in the
past six years traded 7% of volume) making it very
attractive to short interest. They should be happy with
their gains and eventually insts. will defend the
I had one of my analysts look at this stock and he
said at 8x EBITDA it is super cheap for this kind of
company. He is obviously wary of the significant decline
and would be worried that the shorts know something
we may not, but it does look extremly attractive. I
am going to call some analysts that cover the stock
and let you all know.