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Synopsys Inc. Message Board

  • comnup comnup Mar 1, 2000 2:39 PM Flag

    SNPS raised to a buy a few minutes ago

    <EOM>

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    • Good reasons for the drop, best I've read so far.
      Also add the guidance lower to year-end earnings. I
      believe that EDA has to rethink it's revenue model, ala
      QCOM, to try and figure out the best way to make a buck
      and stay alive. Maybe Artisan has it right. Give
      stuff away and charge royalties later...I don't know
      for sure.

      Agree on Numeritech. Didn't know
      Harvey was on the board (he's on so many), but it would
      seem like CBA all over again to me. If their stuff is
      adopted, it could be a huge play, but I think the process
      engineers, etc. will have more to do with advanced DSM than
      EDA will. Like I said before, it seems like sometihng
      that AMAT, etc. would be interested in, and not so
      much the traditional EDA customer.

      --q

    • I bought on 3/7 at 38 9/16 (posted here). Did I call the bottom, or what!? +35% and rising. No signs of slowing short term.

      Devoid

    • acquisition? how much will they be paying per share? $60, or based on close at time.

    • Had to do with the perceived reliance on
      DC-and-related sales being hurt by CDN, as well as insiders
      selling and executive departures. May be old news now,
      and if the internal rumors show the numbers to be
      looking good, this could be driving the price higher now.
      I am still skeptical though.

      As to
      Numeritech, they have Harvey Jones on the board to make it as
      easy SNPS acquisition. They should not be going public
      soon since they are not selling enough to make a
      profit - remember this is EDA. They are not really
      revolutionary - there are many competitors for optical
      correction (MENT is one) but no one really strong
      competitor. If they have their act together it could be an
      opportunity to get them cheap since if it does IPO it won;t
      be a high flier. I am doubtful about the chaces for
      huge success in this space since none of the DSM
      analysis companies have had much success. DSM-related EDA
      companies are still a bit ahead of themselves.

    • This is a no-brainer. SNPS is...simply put, a
      great co. in an explosive sector. Last year I read a
      MONEY magazine article, they listed listed KLAC VTSS
      RMBS EMC and SNPS as "the best" in technology. If SNPS
      can do half of what the others have done, then
      lookout...SNPS time has come! THANK YOU MONEY mag, you were so
      right!

    • DC's 20% and falling. 30% was year's ago.


      You've got to factor maintenance costs separately, that
      confuses a lot of people, and look at growth and breadth.
      VCS is a huge seller, and Vera is gaining fast. Test,
      believe it or not, is major. Static timing Analysis is
      without peer. And Services is growing big time. Physical
      Synthesis is the ticket, I'll agree with you
      there.

      Ambit is $25K, and is making inroads at small
      companies. Still, the risk is high for bigger companies. PKS
      is definitely a threat, but not those who use AVNT
      backend. I've been told it doesn't work well with AVNT,
      since it depends on Q-Place. VCS and NCV will whomp on
      each other, leapfrog (not VHDL) each other, but in my
      eyes, it's a wash.

      I own both right now, made a
      little cash on the side, thank you. Huge position of
      SNPS at 37 and a big position of CDN at 18. Probably
      will trade out if we see a big rise. I usually pocket
      10%-20% gains on the dips and rises of these bad boys.
      They roll almost like a sinusoid.

      My guess is
      that the Dow will get back to where it should be
      (around 11,000) and then the NASDAQ will rip it up back
      to 5,100. I see a NASDAQ year end of 6,000 on the
      upside, 5,500 easy. Earnings are just
      off-the-hook.

      I agree with you, watch 'em EDA stocks
      carefully.

      Good luck!

      --q

    • to all SNPS holders on the recent gains. But
      watch it closely!

      To: qx4: if it is true that
      the percentage of business at SNPS that comes from
      Design Complier and its related components are under 20%
      of total revenue, then SNPS has nothing to worry
      about. But if it is over 30% then its time to be
      concerned, because CDN is doing extremely well with the
      Ambit sales. The $35k price brought in tons of
      sutomers, and the PKS story is looking extremely positive.
      I really have no idea how SNPS revenue is divided
      right now - I bet on the >30% scenario and have
      stayes away from this stock. But I could have guessed
      wrong. Also - NCV is kicking *ss from what I hear as
      well. If you belive in EDA then you should own some CDN
      also.

    • Never mind the dead heads like Big_Bulls*** Your review of SNPS technology and business direction is right on. You must be an insider too ;-)

    • Good, you responded to my troll. Thanks for the
      background...and sorry for the rip. It was unwarranted.

      No,
      I'm not a SNPS employee or even an EDA biggot. I
      simply trade EDA stocks, and invest in tech stocks. I've
      been involved in EDA for a long time...and have done
      well trading in and out of them. You seem like you
      know what you're talking about.

      A few
      things:

      - SNPS does have Vera, competitor to Verisity. I've
      heard from colleauges in the industry that it does very
      well.

      - Formality is a good tool. Verplex is an excellent
      one. And Chrysalis is whacked. Know from
      experience.

      - Ambit was good for SNPS, it made DC better. I
      wish that VCS would've been just as good for XL/NC-V.
      But, CDN lost market share and simply gave away NC-V
      as a response. I lost money on CDN at the
      time.

      - SNPS stock price is down because the industry is
      down. EDA is way out of favor (good time to trade). You
      can sugar coat it all you want, but EDA is
      undervalued and underappreciated.

      - If you're into
      trading and not investing, I think EDA's a good play.
      Both CDN, SNPS, and MENT presented good trading opps.
      But, as an investment? I'd look for higher growth
      areas myself...

      - The big boys can still
      innovate. But, you're right, it's hard to keep talented
      people in this market. However, it's also true that no
      matter who you are...it's hard to keep people. The .com
      mania is presenting way too many opps for people to
      move and make big money quick. The EDA startups, on
      the other hand, really don't have that type of
      allure. So, given that, little EDA companies aren't
      necessarily going to be the ones to drive the future. Sure,
      Ambit had it's day in the sun. But, it's doubtful that
      any of the others will survive and do well given the
      environment we're in.

      -- Finally, SNPS is at it's lows
      for a while, so if you are going to buy, it's time
      right now to get in. The winner of the timing
      convergence battle wins the war. And if I were a betting man,
      I'd bet on SNPS. The frontend is where you need to
      begin, not at the backend, so that eliminates AVNT. CDN
      has a decent solution, but no market share in the
      front end. Even if Ambit is priced at $25K to gain
      market share, people aren't going to throw away their
      highly priced synthesis seats. Plus, DC is fine, it
      works well, it's much improved. Just taking a look at
      the fundamentals, it appears to me that SNPS is the
      best positioned to win it all, and all on it's own.
      The small guys? C'mon. I know of several people who
      left CDN and SNPS to join them, and have already come
      back because of the futility. It's way too big a job
      to even get into a piece of the EDA flow, much less
      the whole darn thing. Then again, I said I'd be
      investing in higher growth areas...so maybe we just let
      this whole thing subside before we start trading
      again...

      Good luck!

      --q

    • > Many believe that PhysOpt will be nothing
      wihtout integrated Place
      > and Route. This will be
      apparent as the market for physical
      > synthesis
      takes shape.

      This statement doesn't make much
      sense. PhysOpt generates complete
      placement, so there
      is no need for integrated "Place". Perhaps
      you
      means integrated route and parasitic extract?

      I
      think that physopt success/or lack thereof will boil
      down to the
      benefit of going beyond placement based
      reoptimization. My take is
      that vast majority of the benefit
      of physical tie to reoptimization
      is
      estabilishing proper cell optimization and placement - which
      PhysOpt
      seems to be doing well, and not routing optimization
      beyond ordering
      of critical nets. Will others come
      along and beat PhysOpt results?
      Time will tell.
      PhysOpt certainly has the early lead.

      The customer
      usage model is also important. There are the die
      hards
      which will want to do the
      place/reopt/route/extract/time loop at their
      site. These guys will figure out
      a way to load the router with physopt
      placement
      and netlist. The key is the vendor handoff customers.
      The
      usage model has yet to be established for these guys...
      does the
      custmer run phyopt, does the vendor run
      physopt? If the customer runs
      physopt, then the vendor
      needs to supply all kinds of physical info
      (e.g.
      floorplan, P&G, etc.) to the custmer which is good IMHO.
      A
      roubtable placement+netlist handoff is vastly prefered to
      the simple
      netlist handoff. If the vendor runs
      physopt, you lose some of the
      benefit because any
      vendor handoff enevitably takes addition
      overhead.

      > If SNPS could grow their own P&R, I would be very
      impressed.

      Agreed!

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SNPS
43.95-0.17(-0.39%)Dec 19 4:00 PMEST

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