Good reasons for the drop, best I've read so far.
Also add the guidance lower to year-end earnings. I
believe that EDA has to rethink it's revenue model, ala
QCOM, to try and figure out the best way to make a buck
and stay alive. Maybe Artisan has it right. Give
stuff away and charge royalties later...I don't know
Agree on Numeritech. Didn't know
Harvey was on the board (he's on so many), but it would
seem like CBA all over again to me. If their stuff is
adopted, it could be a huge play, but I think the process
engineers, etc. will have more to do with advanced DSM than
EDA will. Like I said before, it seems like sometihng
that AMAT, etc. would be interested in, and not so
much the traditional EDA customer.
Had to do with the perceived reliance on
DC-and-related sales being hurt by CDN, as well as insiders
selling and executive departures. May be old news now,
and if the internal rumors show the numbers to be
looking good, this could be driving the price higher now.
I am still skeptical though.
Numeritech, they have Harvey Jones on the board to make it as
easy SNPS acquisition. They should not be going public
soon since they are not selling enough to make a
profit - remember this is EDA. They are not really
revolutionary - there are many competitors for optical
correction (MENT is one) but no one really strong
competitor. If they have their act together it could be an
opportunity to get them cheap since if it does IPO it won;t
be a high flier. I am doubtful about the chaces for
huge success in this space since none of the DSM
analysis companies have had much success. DSM-related EDA
companies are still a bit ahead of themselves.
This is a no-brainer. SNPS is...simply put, a
great co. in an explosive sector. Last year I read a
MONEY magazine article, they listed listed KLAC VTSS
RMBS EMC and SNPS as "the best" in technology. If SNPS
can do half of what the others have done, then
lookout...SNPS time has come! THANK YOU MONEY mag, you were so
DC's 20% and falling. 30% was year's ago.
You've got to factor maintenance costs separately, that
confuses a lot of people, and look at growth and breadth.
VCS is a huge seller, and Vera is gaining fast. Test,
believe it or not, is major. Static timing Analysis is
without peer. And Services is growing big time. Physical
Synthesis is the ticket, I'll agree with you
Ambit is $25K, and is making inroads at small
companies. Still, the risk is high for bigger companies. PKS
is definitely a threat, but not those who use AVNT
backend. I've been told it doesn't work well with AVNT,
since it depends on Q-Place. VCS and NCV will whomp on
each other, leapfrog (not VHDL) each other, but in my
eyes, it's a wash.
I own both right now, made a
little cash on the side, thank you. Huge position of
SNPS at 37 and a big position of CDN at 18. Probably
will trade out if we see a big rise. I usually pocket
10%-20% gains on the dips and rises of these bad boys.
They roll almost like a sinusoid.
My guess is
that the Dow will get back to where it should be
(around 11,000) and then the NASDAQ will rip it up back
to 5,100. I see a NASDAQ year end of 6,000 on the
upside, 5,500 easy. Earnings are just
I agree with you, watch 'em EDA stocks
to all SNPS holders on the recent gains. But
watch it closely!
To: qx4: if it is true that
the percentage of business at SNPS that comes from
Design Complier and its related components are under 20%
of total revenue, then SNPS has nothing to worry
about. But if it is over 30% then its time to be
concerned, because CDN is doing extremely well with the
Ambit sales. The $35k price brought in tons of
sutomers, and the PKS story is looking extremely positive.
I really have no idea how SNPS revenue is divided
right now - I bet on the >30% scenario and have
stayes away from this stock. But I could have guessed
wrong. Also - NCV is kicking *ss from what I hear as
well. If you belive in EDA then you should own some CDN
Good, you responded to my troll. Thanks for the
background...and sorry for the rip. It was unwarranted.
I'm not a SNPS employee or even an EDA biggot. I
simply trade EDA stocks, and invest in tech stocks. I've
been involved in EDA for a long time...and have done
well trading in and out of them. You seem like you
know what you're talking about.
- SNPS does have Vera, competitor to Verisity. I've
heard from colleauges in the industry that it does very
- Formality is a good tool. Verplex is an excellent
one. And Chrysalis is whacked. Know from
- Ambit was good for SNPS, it made DC better. I
wish that VCS would've been just as good for XL/NC-V.
But, CDN lost market share and simply gave away NC-V
as a response. I lost money on CDN at the
- SNPS stock price is down because the industry is
down. EDA is way out of favor (good time to trade). You
can sugar coat it all you want, but EDA is
undervalued and underappreciated.
- If you're into
trading and not investing, I think EDA's a good play.
Both CDN, SNPS, and MENT presented good trading opps.
But, as an investment? I'd look for higher growth
- The big boys can still
innovate. But, you're right, it's hard to keep talented
people in this market. However, it's also true that no
matter who you are...it's hard to keep people. The .com
mania is presenting way too many opps for people to
move and make big money quick. The EDA startups, on
the other hand, really don't have that type of
allure. So, given that, little EDA companies aren't
necessarily going to be the ones to drive the future. Sure,
Ambit had it's day in the sun. But, it's doubtful that
any of the others will survive and do well given the
environment we're in.
-- Finally, SNPS is at it's lows
for a while, so if you are going to buy, it's time
right now to get in. The winner of the timing
convergence battle wins the war. And if I were a betting man,
I'd bet on SNPS. The frontend is where you need to
begin, not at the backend, so that eliminates AVNT. CDN
has a decent solution, but no market share in the
front end. Even if Ambit is priced at $25K to gain
market share, people aren't going to throw away their
highly priced synthesis seats. Plus, DC is fine, it
works well, it's much improved. Just taking a look at
the fundamentals, it appears to me that SNPS is the
best positioned to win it all, and all on it's own.
The small guys? C'mon. I know of several people who
left CDN and SNPS to join them, and have already come
back because of the futility. It's way too big a job
to even get into a piece of the EDA flow, much less
the whole darn thing. Then again, I said I'd be
investing in higher growth areas...so maybe we just let
this whole thing subside before we start trading
> Many believe that PhysOpt will be nothing
wihtout integrated Place
> and Route. This will be
apparent as the market for physical
This statement doesn't make much
sense. PhysOpt generates complete
placement, so there
is no need for integrated "Place". Perhaps
means integrated route and parasitic extract?
think that physopt success/or lack thereof will boil
down to the
benefit of going beyond placement based
reoptimization. My take is
that vast majority of the benefit
of physical tie to reoptimization
estabilishing proper cell optimization and placement - which
seems to be doing well, and not routing optimization
of critical nets. Will others come
along and beat PhysOpt results?
Time will tell.
PhysOpt certainly has the early lead.
usage model is also important. There are the die
which will want to do the
place/reopt/route/extract/time loop at their
site. These guys will figure out
a way to load the router with physopt
and netlist. The key is the vendor handoff customers.
usage model has yet to be established for these guys...
custmer run phyopt, does the vendor run
physopt? If the customer runs
physopt, then the vendor
needs to supply all kinds of physical info
floorplan, P&G, etc.) to the custmer which is good IMHO.
roubtable placement+netlist handoff is vastly prefered to
netlist handoff. If the vendor runs
physopt, you lose some of the
benefit because any
vendor handoff enevitably takes addition
> If SNPS could grow their own P&R, I would be very