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Universal Security Instruments Inc. Message Board

  • techinvest14 techinvest14 Feb 14, 2007 11:41 PM Flag

    its official - IBD100 is done

    like i said before, i don't think IBD had much effect on this stock, but the EPS rating fell to 71, officially knocking it out of the IBD100. a previous poster may have correctly surmised that they got out today. if not, then all you mindless lemmings get outta here so we can get on with our uptrend!!

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    • I don't think it matters because the buying has been institutional. I don't think many shares have come into UUU because of IBD, but that's only my personal opinion.

      Personally, I don't think this quarters numbers were that great now that I notice we had a small tax benefit. With nominal taxation, we would have earned around 1.4-1.45 million. The(imho)lackluster numbers this quarter were more than offset by the standard that is now set as we are positioned to compete more aggressively in the retail market. I think this is just the beginning of that new trend. Now we see what may have been one of the driving factors in increasing production.

      On another optimistic note, it's likely that each quarter from here on will be stronger than this last one for a long time to come. Even still, if we earn 1.45 million (when nominally taxed) per quarter, that's 5.8 million a year at what should be sold for at least at 15 multiple (the reason the multiple is 13 is because of not being fully taxed over the last year).

      A 15 multipe on 5.8 million is an approxtimate value of 36. Which means fair value at this moment is at least 20 percent higher than we are trading right now. Watch for the meandering movement towards 36 over the next 2 months.

      That being said, I'd guess that the next 4 quarters will net about 7.0-8.0 million in net income, nominally taxed. Put a 13 Forward PE on the next four quarters and we are 27% undervalued. Fair value from that guesstimate would be around 38.50.

      So perhaps, 37-38 will be where we trade in 3 months, although I wouldn't sell there if it went up to that level as soon as Monday. I think we should expect 45-60 by the end of the year, with more PPS growth ahead of us.

      • 1 Reply to mmmparsley
      • parsley,

        At 7.5 million net income for the next 4 quarters and the most recent quarter multiplied by 4...that's 6 million net assuming current net income based on the quarter. that's a 25% increase in net income. A p/e of 15 on 25% growth in net income is a peg of .6. fair value peg is 1 even though the general market is selling at 1.6, but let's assume it's 1. 1/.6 is 1.67. That's a 67% increase making the stock's fair value 60. If it catches up to the markets average peg then we are looking at 1.6/.6 = 160% increase or 78 per share. Anything beyond that is speculative in my opinion and circumstances will surely change before it hit's that level, but on current earnings pace that's what we are looking at.

    • i guess the IBD eps rating calculation changed its mind because we are still in the IBD100. They now show us with an EPS rating of 89 again. funny how the other day they had it at 71. gee - do you think that whole IBD 100 is just a tad rigged? i was hoping to get this behind us.

    • Hey be nice. For all you know, I might be a mindless lemming and we have feelings you know.



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