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Arlington Asset Investment Corp. Message Board

  • michaelrgiroux michaelrgiroux Jan 23, 2013 8:32 PM Flag

    Headed back down.

    Absolutely no good reason for this turd to be trading $2.00 + above analysts 2013 year end estimate. It should be trading @ $2.00 less than 2013 estimates, $19.00 per share.

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    • You may want to take a look at this: on 11/30/12 , AI closed at $20.79 earlier that day Wunderlich changed their price target from $24 to $21...Today 2/11/13 the same so-called analysts have changed the price to:$21 - $23.50 price at 11:33 am is $24.78 WHY WOULD YOU EVER GIVE ANY CREEDENCE TO ANY ANALYSTS WITH THIS KIND OF TRACK RECORD??? check it out for yourself...at least go back and look at the analysts track record before you buy or sell....in other words do your own work...Sorry if I've been rough on you, but I and many other holders of AI and other securities read these message boards and look for additional information that may be helpful in performing our own analysis and when we see broad pronouncements as to the status or possible direction of a particular security, we look into the basis of the comment in an effort to identify potential threats. When I and others

    • How about good earnings, i think that it's a great for this to be trading at $25 - $30 contrary to what the analysts think!

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Is that the best you can say, and it has to be negative? You must either expect the market to make you money each day, or you are never thankful. I'm long, I love the dividends that AI gives me, constantly, and I continue to reinvest and aquire.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • In the next 45 days watch for analsysts to raise the target to $30 per share.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • AI could have paid a higher dividend based on earnings of $1.25/sh but they paid it early in Dec 2012 for the benefit of shareholders lower tax rate. Expect a higher dividend next qtr as they take advantage of the NOL's. If this see's the teens again I will be surprised and will certainly take advantage of that opportunity to accumulate more.

      This was an outstanding qtr and great guidance going forward.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to brokerjmac
      • We might see the "teens" but I don't believe it will happen for the foreseeable future because:
        1. The current dividend appears sustainable and well might be raised,
        2. The favorable tax treatment of the dividends (qualified rather than ordinary dividends paid by REITs),
        3 The probability of a lower yield going forward because of the reasons stated above and because yields are dropping because prices are being bid up as the economy improves.
        A 14.3% yield that is taxed at qualified dividend rates compares quite favorably with a 13.5% (or lower) yield of many if not most financial REITs which are taxed at ordinary income rates and, IMO, won't last too much longer after the performance of last quarter and with the direction that the company is being taken.

    • It's better if we do OUR OWN analysis rather than depending on "Professional Analysts" who are lucky if they get half correct. The two major tipping points were: The dismissal of the SEC allegations which provided a large reserve for litigation to be brought back into operating income; the second was the large purchase of higher coupon rate mortgages and CMO's at higher than current rates...this was all spelled-out in Management comments during the last 6 months. This is primarily why I took a large position in November 2012 and suggested a Buy and Hold. In addition to good dividends, it's up over 25% since I took the position...All based on actual hands-on analysis. It's pathetic for you to state that this "TURD" (your words) should much lower based on "analysts work" that you most-likely did not check but took for gospel. In addition, after your apparent blunder, you still insist AI is going back down. Good luck in the future and I honestly hope that in the future, for your own sake, that you take the time to do your own work.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to ehcowden
      • After watching the analysts have no better track record than the T.V. weatherman, you have to wonder why anybody employs them. Look a Cramer the dreamer: at his best, he is a C-, rating by his own peers. Do your own research people, and not vote by gossip. AI is a long term hold and money maker for me.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • nonameoilworker@sbcglobal.net nonameoilworker Feb 6, 2013 4:06 PM Flag

      short selling spamaholic, welcome to my blocked list

    • What are you talking about? Analyst estimates for 2013 average $24.75. Balance sheet is as strong as it has ever been. Earnings are to be roughly the same as last year at $4.11/share. Considering the dividend is 15% at these levels, I think $25/share is right around the corner.

 
AI
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