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Arlington Asset Investment Corp. Message Board

  • ceschm ceschm Jul 25, 2000 10:22 PM Flag

    A'hoy Mateys...

    Batten down the hatches boys and girls for in
    this humble investors opinion we are going to be
    riding the $4's for the next 5 to 7 trading sessions.
    That is if historical data is any indicator of future
    price movement, which some folks will swear it is not.
    In my case however I tend to believe that there is a
    considerable amount of validity to technical analysis of a
    stocks movement. AI has, without a doubt, been trading
    within a well defined range of $4.50 to $6.50 on very
    predictable volume since mid-April. Now with the issue under
    $5 again we can expect the usual margin selling
    which will put further downward pressure on the stock
    and IMO may drive it to as low as $4.25 within the
    next two sessions. This presents an excellent buying
    opportunity during the next few days for both the long-term
    holder and the short-term trader. The aforementioned
    situation combined with the current roadshow, which has
    historically brought in buyers, and the VKFS telecom
    conference exposure, which should also bring in buyers,
    should turn the stock price back around within the next
    week as buying pressure picks back up. As
    daylate$$short indicated, AI tested the 200 EMA today. The issue
    showed some strength at the close as many of us stalwart
    longs joined the fray and bought discounted shares. IMO
    tomorrow the 200 EMA will not only be tested it will be
    broken at which point we may see some larger block buys
    coming off. Time will tell...
    Do not despair, we are
    dealing with a temporary setback, don't wallow in
    self-pity, take advantage of the situation. Nobody ever said
    this was going to be easy...
    Good Luck & Stay

    (Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST
    Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Buy)

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    • These are the effects of dilution. Expect more
      dilution due to financing. Large institutional holdings
      will come by way of the equity financing and not
      purchases in the open market. This has been the Modus
      Operendi for AI since inception.

      Expect to see low
      $3 level. Also, for the same reasons you mentioned
      in your post. IMO.

14.02+0.04(+0.29%)Oct 2 4:02 PMEDT