CE has declined over 16% from recent high even though fundamentals are improving - this creates an excellent opportunity to load up. 1. CE has been able to increase prices of its products, suggesting strong demand. Pricing power is a very good sign of the strength of business. 2. Avg analyst estimate for 2012 EPS has consistently gone up and is now at $5.01. The CEO has said that they expect to earn $6 in 2013. That provides tremendous value. 3. Ce is relatively small company, specilizing in specialty chemical with high margins. If share prices remain undervalued, it could easily become a takeover target with 40% appreciation potential. 4. Oil prices have retreated, reducing CE's costs. 5. Their coal based ethanol, which is very cheap, has been termed as "game changer." In terms of potential, sky is the limit.
Fundamentals point to strong appreciation through 2013, possibly hitting $90 (this move could be compared to Monsanto's aggressive upward move a few years ago that lasted for several years).
I agree with your projections and price targets. My only short term technical concern right now is that we have broken the upward 3 month trend line but still are above 48 support and the 50 day moving average. Nothing to worry about if CE performs as advertized.
Personally, I would like them to NOT be acquired, and would like to see the fulfillment of the commercial and fuel ethanol development which I think could be HUGE going out to 2017-2020. And that's not even considering whout would happen if the US got its political act together regarding ethanol production.